The Daily Shot: 08-Feb-21
• The United States
• Canada
• The Eurozone
• Europe
• Asia – Pacific
• China
• Emerging Markets
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Credit
• Rates
• Global Developments
• Food for Thought
The United States
1. The January payrolls report was disappointing. The number of jobs created was less than half the consensus, and there was a 159k downward revision to previous figures.
• The labor market recovery has stalled.
Source: Mizuho Securities USA
• Private payrolls were almost flat.
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
• The manufacturing and construction sectors lost jobs last month (economists expected gains).
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Here is the breakdown by sector.
Source: Oxford Economics
• On a positive note, the headline unemployment rate declined.
However, so did the labor force participation.
• Long-term unemployment (as a percentage of total unemployment) continues to climb.
Source: Emma Riggs, Robins School of Business, University of Richmond
• Here are some additional updates on the jobs market.
– Permanent vs. temporary layoffs:
Source: Oxford Economics
– Percent of industries creating jobs by wage category:
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
– Employment recovery by sector:
Source: TS Lombard
• According to Oxford Economics, employment should return to pre-COVID levels in Q2-Q3 of next year, but the pace of growth will remain much shallower.
Source: Oxford Economics
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2. Typically, Treasury yields decline in response to a soft jobs report, but that wasn’t the case on Friday. Weakness in the labor market raises the odds of massive fresh stimulus and more debt issuance.
The yield curve continues to steepen.
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3. US credit card balances are now almost 11% below pre-COVID levels.
4. Growth in student debt continues to slow.
The percentage of student loan borrowers with missed payments keeps rising.
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
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5. Here are some updates on inflation.
• Rents are rebounding, which will contribute to higher inflation readings in the months ahead.
Source: Arbor Research & Trading
• Variant Perception expects a spike in headline inflation, given base effects in oil prices.
Source: Variant Perception
• Here is Nomura’s estimate for the January month-over-month core CPI.
Source: Nomura Securities
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6. US bankruptcy filings are at multi-year lows.
Source: @axios Read full article
7. Despite high tariffs on Chinese goods, …
Source: Oxford Economics
… the US trade deficit remains near record levels.
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8. Finally, this chart shows the velocity of federal debt.
Source: Mizuho Securities USA
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Canada
1. The January employment report was terrible, although the job losses were mostly in part-time positions.
• The recovery has stalled.
Source: Scotiabank Economics
• The unemployment rate rose more than expected.
And Canada’s labor force participation is deteriorating again.
• Here is the breakdown by sector:
Source: Scotiabank Economics
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2. The December trade deficit was smaller than expected.
3. Bond yields are moving higher.
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The Eurozone
1. Germany’s factory orders paused in December.
Industrial production continues to recover.
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2. Italian retail sales bounced in December.
3. Ireland’s construction activity collapsed last month.
4. Here is the composition of COVID-related government measures in 2020.
Source: ECB Read full article
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Europe
1. Sweden’s industrial production has rebounded sharply. However, service-sector output and household consumption are not in great shape.
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2. How long before Europe hits herd immunity at the current vaccination pace?
Source: @markets Read full article
3. This chart shows the minimum wage for select European economies.
Source: Eurostat Read full article
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Asia – Pacific
1. Japan’s share prices are soaring.
2. Dollar-yen is testing the 200-day moving average.
3. Singapore’s December retail sales were below consensus.
4. The Australian dollar is still below fair value, according to BCA Research.
Source: BCA Research
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China
1. Holiday travel has been depressed this year (2 charts).
Source: ANZ Research
Source: @markets Read full article
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2. A profit recovery during the second half of 2020 supported the rise in stock prices.
Source: BCA Research
However, high input inflation relative to output prices could squeeze profit margins.
Source: BCA Research
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3. Here is the composition of China’s fixed income market.
Source: UBS Asset Management
4. This chart compares China’s corporate defaults to other economies.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Biagio Campo
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Emerging Markets
1. Let’s begin with some updates on Russia.
• Core CPI (above consensus):
• Real disposable income:
Source: IIF
• Population below poverty line:
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
• Reductions in government spending:
Source: IIF
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2. Israel’s foreign reserves are nearing $180 bn.
3. Malaysia’s industrial output rebounded in December.
4. Colombia’s core CPI is now below 1%.
5. Inflation in Brazil remains at the lower end of the central bank’s target band.
Source: BCA Research
6. Mexico’s business investment has been struggling.
7. Next, we have some data on perceived corruption in select African nations.
Source: Afrobarometer Read full article
8. This chart shows the share of cyclical sector exposure in EM regions.
Source: BofA Global Research
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Commodities
1. US lumber futures are moving higher.
2. New York frozen concentrated orange juice futures are at short-term support.
Source: Dantes Outlook
3. Commodities are off to a strong start this year.
Source: Fitch Solutions Macro Research
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Energy
1. Brent futures are testing $60/bbl.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
2. The number of active US oil rigs is grinding higher (but still below 300).
Here is the breakdown.
Source: Princeton Energy Advisors
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3. This scatterplot shows the relationship between oil prices and inventories.
Source: Evercore ISI
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Equities
1. We continue to see signs of extreme enthusiasm for stocks from retail investors.
• Search activity for “penny stocks”:
Source: Google Trends
• Search activity for “invest in stocks”:
Source: Google Trends
• Robinhood equities and options trading volume:
Source: Robinhood, @jessefelder, @SarahPonczek Read full article
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2. Retail demand for call options has been keeping the Nasdaq 100 implied vol elevated.
Source: TS Lombard
Options activity in the most shorted stocks increased substantially last month, …
Source: SPDR Americas Research, @mattbartolini
… which drove the outperformance of the most shorted names.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
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3. Earnings days haven’t been kind to many stocks.
Source: Hugo Ste-Marie, Portfolio & Quantitative Strategy Global Equity Research, Scotia Capital
4. Here is the percentage of stocks beating earnings forecasts (by sector).
Source: @FactSet Read full article
Net S&P 500 upward earnings revisions are starting to roll over.
Source: Variant Perception
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6. January was a good month for follow-on equity offerings.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
7. Finally, we have tech M&A by year.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
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Credit
1. US junk bond yields are hitting record lows.
2. Very few names are now trading at distressed levels.
Source: CreditSights
Here is the sector composition of US distressed debt.
Source: CreditSights
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3. Many small-cap firms are highly leveraged.
Source: Société Générale; Tilo Marotz
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Rates
1. The US 10yr breakeven rate (inflation expectations) is at multi-year highs.
Could inflation expectations pause at current levels?
Source: BCA Research
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2. Based on the reaction to previous economic slowdowns, the recovery in yields should enter a trading range in the months ahead.
Source: Arbor Research & Trading
3. SOFR (LIBOR replacement) swap volumes have risen sharply in recent months.
Source: Risk.net, Jalák Bonó
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Global Developments
1. Let’s start with Goldman’s risk appetite index.
2. Speculator-driven fund flows have been hitting records.
Source: BofA Global Research, Christof Leisinger
3. Equity implied volatility rose last month, while volatility in other asset classes declined.
Source: SPDR Americas Research, @mattbartolini
4. Manufacturers around the world have been reporting shipping delays.
Source: @WilliamsonChris
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Food for Thought
1. Time it took to reach 50 million users:
Source: Jack Ablin, Cresset Wealth Advisors
2. Electric vehicles in Norway:
Source: Statista
3. Americans’ expectations of the Biden administration:
Source: Gallup Read full article
4. Views on Marjorie Taylor Greene, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Liz Cheney:
Source: @YouGovAmerica Read full article
5. Percent of Americans using electricity to heat their homes:
Source: @axios Read full article
6. Reasons for refusing a COVID vaccine:
Source: Ipsos Read full article
7. US vaccination percentages by race/ethnicity:
Source: Statista
8. Denmark has been sequencing every COVID infection. Here are the results.
Source: @EricTopol, @K_G_Andersen, @kkape, @ScienceMagazine, @oooitsplasma Read full article
9. Super Bowl household spending:
Source: @business Read full article
Super Bowl ad spending by sector:
Source: The Economist Read full article
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10. Facts about Black History Month:
Source: FamilySearch Blog Read full article
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