The Daily Shot: 21-Apr-21
• The United States
• The United Kingdom
• Europe
• Asia – Pacific
• China
• Emerging Markets
• Cryptocurrency
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Credit
• Food for Thought
The United States
1. Let’s begin with some trends in housing.
• Homebuyers emphasize housing returns and stability as reasons for buying a home vs. stocks (compared to 2020).
Source: NY Fed Read full article
• Rent-related search activity has been more positive in recent weeks.
Source: Arbor Research & Trading
• Single-family housing rents on higher-tier properties are rising at the fastest pace in years (wealthier households moving out of urban areas). But lower-tier properties are lagging.
Source: CoreLogic
• Loan applications to purchase a second home or an investment property are well above the levels we’ve seen in recent years.
Source: AEI Housing Center
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2. The nation’s automobile market is heating up.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
Shortages of new vehicles due to semiconductor supply issues …
Source: @WSJ Read full article
… helped boost prices on used cars.
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3. The semiconductor industry requires significant R&D spending.
Source: BofA Global Research
4. Last year’s upside distortion in wage growth will now show up on the downside.
Source: @jeffsparshott
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The United Kingdom
1. The unemployment rate ticked lower.
But the UK’s employment recovery has been in limbo.
Source: Evercore ISI
High-frequency indicators point to a rebound in the jobs market ahead.
• PMI employment:
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
• Job ads:
Source: Longview Economics
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2. UK employees are looking for more flexible working arrangements.
Source: Chris Hughes, Bloomberg Read full article
3. Debit/credit card spending recovery has been lagging the same indicator in the US.
Source: Longview Economics
4. Online search activity for “going out” is rebounding.
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
5. The UK has done an impressive job in reducing COVID-related pressures on the healthcare system.
Source: BBC Read full article
6. Port delays continue to ease.
Source: Huq Read full article
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Europe
1. German producer prices are rising.
2. Danske Bank sees further downside for the euro.
Source: Danske Bank
3. Next, we have some updates on Sweden.
• Car sales have outperformed other European economies.
Source: ING
• Home prices are surging.
Source: Bloomberg Read full article
– Property transaction volumes are at multi-year highs.
Source: Nordea Markets
– Home prices have diverged from consumer spending.
Source: Nordea Markets
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4. Which European countries use most AI in business?
Source: Eurostat Read full article
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Asia – Pacific
1. The BoJ has been cautious about JGB purchases.
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
2. South Korea’s exports remain robust. Much of the 45% year-over-year spike was due to base effects – but not all.
3. Australia’s retail sales firmed up in March.
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China
1. The stock market benchmark is holding support at the 200-day moving average.
2. The yuan remains a minor component of global F/X reserves.
Source: @DiMartinoBooth, @bpolitics Read full article
3. China’s semiconductor capacity is expected to surge over the next decade.
Source: Gavekal Research
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Emerging Markets
1. Let’s begin with Russia.
• The unemployment rate (lower than expected):
• Retail sales (very weak):
• Wage growth (better):
• Cargo shipments (strong):
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2. Benjamin Netanyahu’s odds of holding on to power have diminished.
Source: The Jerusalem Post Read full article
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3. The rupee remains under pressure. Here is the 1-month F/X forward.
4. Peru’s far-left candidate is leading in the polls, which is spooking investors.
Source: The Rio Times Read full article
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5. Brazil’s tax revenue surprised to the upside.
6. Chile’s vaccination program appears to be working, as the average age of ICU patients declines.
Source: Sebastian Brown, Deutsche Bank Research
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Cryptocurrency
1. Here is cryptocurrency ownership by age.
Source: MagnifyMoney Read full article
2. The massive Dogecoin rally has paused.
Source: FTX
Source: Reuters Read full article
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3. The Binance token is approaching record highs.
Source: FTX
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Commodities
1. US corn futures are trading above $6 bushel for the first time in years. Unfavorable weather forecasts increased concerns about the pace of planting.
2. US lumber futures are trading at a massive premium to pine logs.
Source: Bloomberg Read full article
Forest and timberland properties have performed well over the past year.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
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Energy
1. Brent held resistance at the upper Bollinger band.
2. MLPs (pipeline companies) are yet to recover from the massive COVID crash.
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Equities
1. The stock market rally took a long-overdue pause. Cyclical sectors underperformed.
• Banks:
• Housing:
• Semiconductors:
• Energy:
• Leisure/entertainment:
• The transportation index climbed due to M&A activity.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
But airlines slumped.
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Defensive sectors gained.
• Utilities:
• Healthcare:
• Consumer staples:
• REITs:
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2. Here are some popular thematic ETFs.
• Sports betting:
• The post-IPO basket:
• Ark Innovation:
Retail favorites have been underperforming.
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3. Small caps took a hit.
4. The S&P 500 breadth has diverged from that of the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000.
Source: @LizAnnSonders
5. The most-shorted stocks are lagging again.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
JP Morgan’s clients have boosted their short positions.
Source: @DiMartinoBooth, @jpmorgan, @business
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6. CTAs continue to raise their exposure to the S&P 500.
Source: @ISABELNET_SA, @Nomura
7. Returns dispersion is back below the long-term average.
Source: @ISABELNET_SA, @GoldmanSachs
8. ESG funds have been booming.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
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Credit
1. The recovery in BDC prices has been impressive.
2. Banks have recouped some of their 2020 loan-loss provisions.
Source: @FactSet Read full article
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Food for Thought
1. The importance of employees’ relationship with management:
Source: McKinsey Read full article
2. Twitter vs. Facebook:
Source: Statista
3. The podcast boom (2 charts):
Source: @chartrdaily Read full article
Source: Morning Consult Read full article
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4. Reasons for not subscribing to cable or satellite TV:
Source: Pew Research Center Read full article
5. Air quality across Asia:
Source: Statista
6. GOP 2024 presidential nomination betting market odds:
Source: PredictIt
7. Vaccine efficacy:
Source: The Economist Read full article
8. Future of business travel:
Source: TS Lombard
9. Bad passwords:
Source: Statista
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