The Daily Shot: 28-Apr-21
• The United States
• The United Kingdom
• The Eurozone
• Asia – Pacific
• China
• Emerging Markets
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Credit
• Rates
• Global Developments
• Food for Thought
The United States
1. Consumer confidence surged in April, topping forecasts.
Here are the contributions to the Conference Board’s index.
Source: Mizuho Securities USA
The labor differential (spread between ‘jobs plentiful’ and ‘jobs hard to get’ indices) rose sharply, pointing to a rapid recovery in the jobs market.
Automobile buying intentions increased again.
Separately, here is Gallup’s economic confidence index.
Source: Gallup Read full article
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2. In-store credit card spending continues to recover.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
Credit card delinquencies have been trending lower.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
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3. Restaurants are struggling to find workers as visits rebound.
Source: Placer Labs
Restaurant wages are going up.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
Source: @WSJ Read full article
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4. Job openings continue to recover.
Source: @JedKolko, @indeed
Source: @JedKolko, @indeed
Openings for internships are still lagging the 2019 levels.
Source: @JedKolko, @indeed Read full article
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5. The Richmond Fed’s regional manufacturing index was softer than expected.
• Wage growth has rebounded.
• Supply-chain problems have become a drag on growth.
– Vendor lead times:
– Order backlog:
– Inventories:
– Price pressures:
Manufacturers around the country are passing on higher prices to their customers.
Source: @markets Read full article
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6. The Dallas Fed’s service-sector report shows rapid expansion in business activity.
7. Based on recent communications, the Fed wants to “assess” and “give some time” before adjusting monetary policy.
Source: Arbor Research & Trading
But agreement among Fed officials has fallen recently.
Source: Arbor Research & Trading
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8. The 10-year breakeven rate (market-based inflation expectations) hit the highest level since 2013.
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The United Kingdom
1. Retail sales jumped this month, according to CBI.
Source: The Guardian Read full article
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2. This chart shows UK ground transportation costs over time.
Source: GOV.UK Read full article
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The Eurozone
1. Italy’s economic sentiment has almost fully recovered.
The government is upbeat about growth in the next few years.
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
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2. Spain’s tourism remains depressed.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
3. Here are the latest polls from Germany.
Source: Danske Bank
4. This chart shows the amount of public debt not held by the central bank.
Source: Natixis
5. The percentage of counterfeit euros continues to decline.
Source: ECB Read full article
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Asia – Pacific
1. Japan’s retail sales are recovering.
2. South Korea’s consumer confidence keeps strengthening.
3. Australia’s first-quarter CPI surprised to the downside.
The Aussie dollar slumped in response.
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4. How old are Asia’s tech companies?
Source: Statista
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China
1. Investors remain concerned about Huarong’s debt.
Source: Fitch Ratings Read full article
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2. Exports are likely at their peak.
Source: Gavekal Research
3. Will other funds benefit from a regulatory cap on Yu’e Bao (the largest money market fund)?
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
Source: Fitch Ratings
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4. Hong Kong’s exports remain robust.
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Emerging Markets
1. Let’s begin with India.
• COVID-related deaths are massively under-reported.
Source: TS Lombard
• Positivity rates are soaring.
Source: Alpine Macro
• Below are the regional COVID trends.
Source: Longview Economics
• And this chart shows two potential scenarios.
Source: Alpine Macro
• Mobility indicators have tumbled, pointing to weakening business activity.
Source: Alpine Macro
• The pandemic caused massive capital outflows.
Source: @johnauthers, @SocieteGenerale Read full article
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2. Credit growth has been slowing across EM Asia economies.
Source: ANZ Research
3. This chart shows Russia’s currency composition of exports.
Source: @adam_tooze; The Economist Read full article
4. Mexico’s March exports surprised to the downside.
Source: Reuters Read full article
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Commodities
1. The rally in US grains is fading.
• Corn:
• Bloomberg’s grains index:
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2. Softs are rallying in response to adverse weather conditions in Brazil (persistent dryness in parts of the country).
• Sugar:
• Arabica coffee:
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3. Copper prices have diverged from net speculative positions.
Source: MacroMarketsDaily
4. Global steel prices are surging.
Source: @jessefelder, @markets Read full article
China’s steel margins have rebounded.
Source: Macquarie, @Scutty
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Energy
1. European natural gas prices are soaring.
Demand for LNG globally and weaker output have been boosting US natural gas futures.
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2. Crude oil has been underperforming other commodities.
h/t @themarketear
3. US energy trade has been in surplus.
Source: @EIAgov
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Equities
1. US tech mega-caps have had much better profitability than the broader market over the past few years.
Source: Alpine Macro
Alpine Macro expects FAANGMÂ stocks to regain market leadership beyond the near term as Treasury yields peak.
Source: Alpine Macro
However, a rebound in Treasury yields this week is helping the Russell 2000 index outperform the Nasdaq 100.
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2. Is “sell in May and go away” a good idea?
Source: @RenMacLLC
3. Are margin growth forecasts too optimistic?
Source: Daniel Grosvenor, Oxford Economics
4. Higher inflation will require much stronger earnings to keep stock prices from declining.
Source: LPL Research
5. This chart shows S&P 500 earnings growth consensus forecasts over time.
Source: Yardeni Research
6. Companies known for share buybacks have been outperforming since the vaccine news last year.
7. Here is the Reddit crowd’s latest ‘pump & dump’ target
Source: @WSJ Read full article
8. How have different equity factors performed this month?
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
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Credit
1. High-yield energy bond spreads continue to tighten.
2. The overall US high-yield spread dispersion has tumbled in recent weeks.
Source: Arbor Research & Trading
3. US banks have been slowing their commercial real estate credit growth.
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Rates
1. The 3-month Treasury bill yield is back in negative territory …
… amid rising liquidity.
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2. Foreign investors remain net sellers of Treasuries.
Source: BCA Research
3. Flows into inflation-linked Treasuries remain robust.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
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Global Developments
1. 10-year inflation expectations across the world have risen sharply.
Source: Arbor Research & Trading
2. Households are sitting on substantial savings.
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
3. Global trade has recovered.
Source: @berthofmanecon Read full article
4. Real yield differentials suggest further downside in the dollar.
Source: Alpine Macro
5. This chart shows the share in daily COVID-related deaths by country income group.
Source: World Bank
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Food for Thought
1. OECD total tax revenue:
Source: Visual Capitalist Read full article
2. US proposed tax increases:
Source: Truist Advisory Services
3. Gen-Z unemployment rates:
Source: Visual Capitalist Read full article
4. US imports of large lithium-ion batteries:
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
5. Streaming services subscriptions:
Source: Bloomberg Read full article
6. Semiconductor manufacturers:
Source: Statista
7. Academy Awards viewership:
Source: @axios Read full article
8. NYC subway ridership:
Source: ANZ Research
• NYC complaints about dirty conditions:
Source: Bloomberg Read full article
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9. Why people buy art?
Source: @SamRo
10. Driving across the US:
Source: @WSJ Read full article
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