Posted on by The Daily Shot Editor: Lev Borodovsky

Households’ financial distress is at record lows

The Daily Shot: 10-Aug-21
• The United States
• The United Kingdom
• The Eurozone
• Asia – Pacific
• China
• Emerging Markets
• Cryptocurrency
• Commodities
• Equities
• Global Developments
• Food for Thought

 

The United States

1. Job openings hit another record in June, with the May figures revised higher. The demand for labor in the US is unprecedented.
 

 
Vacancies have been surging broadly, with most sectors hitting record highs.
 
– Demand for drivers and warehouse workers:
 

 
– Manufacturing:
 

 
– Retail:
 

 
– Professional services:
 

 
– Hotels and restaurants:
 

 
– Healthcare:
 

 
– Public school teachers:
 

 
• Layoffs are near the lows, and voluntary resignations (quits) are near the highs.
 

 
• The ratio of unemployed to job openings is back below one.
 

 
• The Beveridge curve illustrates just how tight the labor market has become. While businesses should see some relief as workers return, labor shortages could persist for some time (low immigration, years of weak population growth, and high retirement rates).
 
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics  

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2. Next, we have some updates on household credit.
 
• Consumer credit jumped by most on record in June, …
 

 
… as Americans tapped their credit cards (revolving credit).
 

 
• Banks have been increasingly accommodative (easing underwriting standards) as demand for credit card borrowing picks up.
 
Source: Federal Reserve Board  
 
• Student debt growth continues to slow.
 

 
• Households’ liquid assets as a percentage of disposable personal income are at record highs.
 
Source: Cornerstone Macro  
 
Here is the distribution of excess savings.
 
Source: Oxford Economics  
 
• Banks have been easing lending standards on jumbo mortgages amid strong demand.
 
Source: Federal Reserve Board  
 
• The overall household credit rose sharply in the second quarter, driven by mortgages.
 

 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  
 
• Mortgage financing remains dominated by top-credit-score borrowers.
 
Source: @jessefelder, @FT   Read full article  
 
• These charts show auto loan originations by borrowers’ credit score and age.
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  
 
• Next, we have some updates on households’ financial distress.
 
– Total delinquencies:
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  
 
– Thanks, Uncle Sam!
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  
 
– Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures (3 charts) …
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  
 
… helped by forbearance programs:
 
Source: Mizuho Securities USA  
 
– Consumer financial distress is at record lows.
 
Source: Mizuho Securities USA  
 
– What happens when support ends?
 
Source: The Washington Post   Read full article  

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3. Mobility continues to improve …
 
Source: Hugo Ste-Marie, Portfolio & Quantitative Strategy Global Equity Research, Scotia Capital  
 
… despite rising COVID cases.
 

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The United Kingdom

1. Retail sales growth moderated last month, according to BRC.
 

 
Source: The Independent   Read full article  

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2. The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to sink.
 

 
 
3. As we saw last week, the BoE boosted its forecast for near-term inflation. The central bank also lowered its projections for unemployment.
 
Source: BCA Research  
 
In response, markets priced in faster rate hikes (chart shows market expectations for the overnight rate).
 
Source: BoE  

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4. Long-term market-based inflation expectations continue to grind higher.
 

 
5. Mobility recovery has stalled.
 
Source: Hugo Ste-Marie, Portfolio & Quantitative Strategy Global Equity Research, Scotia Capital  
 
6. On a lighter note, here is how Britons organize their books.
 
Source: @YouGov, @IvanTheK  

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The Eurozone

1. Investor confidence took a hit amid pandemic concerns.
 

 
2. French industrial sentiment appears to have peaked.
 

 
3. German exports hit a record high.
 

 
4. Services have been recovering this summer as manufacturing activity moderates.
 
Source: Gavekal Research  
 
5. This chart shows European Parliament election turnout relative to national elections.
 
Source: @Bruegel_org, @FrancescoPapad1, @enricobergamini, @manumourlon, @porcarorama   Read full article  

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Asia – Pacific

1. Taiwan’s exports have been soaring.
 

 
2. New Zealand’s retail card spending is now above the pre-COVID trend.
 

 
3. Australia’s consumer and business sentiment has been plunging due to the COVID situation.
 
• Consumer confidence:
 

 
• Business confidence:
 

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China

1. Air travel is down sharply …
 
Source: Bloomberg   Read full article  
 
… amid concerns about the outbreak.
 
Source: Bloomberg   Read full article  

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2. Fund inflows accelerated even as stocks came under pressure.
 
Source: SPDR Americas Research, @mattbartolini  

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Emerging Markets

1. Mexico’s core inflation continues to rise.
 

 
2. Colombia’s consumer confidence rebounded more than expected.
 

 
3. Here are some updates on Chile.
 
• Inflation topped forecasts last month.
 

 
• F/X reserves hit a record high, …
 

 
… boosted by robust exports.
 

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4. Higher commodity prices should support LatAm growth.
 
Source: Gavekal Research  
 
5. The Philippine economy contracted more than expected last quarter.
 

 
6. EM policy rates will continue to climb.
 
Source: @RobinBrooksIIF  
 
7. Brazil and Russia’s government bonds have significantly outperformed their EM counterparts over the past few months …
 
Source: MRB Partners  
 
… largely due to relatively steep yield curves in both countries.
 
Source: MRB Partners  

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Cryptocurrency

1. Bitcoin broke above the 200-day moving average, which typically precedes further upside.
 

 
2. It’s been a good couple of weeks for crypto markets.
 

 
3. Ether’s implied volatility dropped sharply last week as the cryptocurrency rallied nearly 30%.
 
Source: @skewdotcom  
 
The bulk of Ethereum options activity has been concentrated in the higher strike, longer duration calls.
 
Source: Laevitas   Read full article  

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3. Digital asset funds saw outflows for the fifth straight week, although assets under management hit the highest level since mid-May (2 charts).
 
Source: CoinShares   Read full article  
 
Source: CoinShares  
 
Bitcoin funds continued to bear the brunt of outflows last week.
 
Source: CoinShares  

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4. Bitcoin’s transaction volume with values of at least $1 million has risen 10% since the beginning of August and accounts for nearly 70% of the total value transferred. This suggests large investors have fueled the recent bitcoin rally
 
Source: Glassnode   Read full article  
 
5. The “kimchi premium” has flipped to a discount, which reflects a substantial decline in South Korean trading activity relative to other regions. 
 
Source: CryptoQuant  

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Commodities

1. Gold technicals haven’t been great.
 

 
Here is gold relative to the CRB Commodities Index
 
h/t Cornerstone Macro  

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2. While equities and fixed income ETFs had inflows in July, commodity funds had outflows as investors reduced gold-related exposures, according to State Street.
 
Source: SPDR Americas Research, @mattbartolini  
 
3. Global grain trade volumes are expected to rise over the next few years.
 
Source: Breakwave Advisors   Read full article  
 
4. Chicago hog futures are rolling over.
 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  
 

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Equities

1. A record number of firms are beating earnings estimates.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
But outlook has become less optimistic.
 
Source: @ISABELNET_SA, @BofAML  

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2. Value stock performance is heavily dependent on economic growth. 
 
Source: Cambridge Associates   Read full article  
 
3. This chart shows real monthly equity returns during different inflation regimes.
 
Source: FactorResearch  
 
4. Buy-write funds finally got some inflows.
 
Source: Bloomberg   Read full article  
 
These strategies tend to underperform even on a risk-adjusted basis (a similar drawdown but limited upside).
 

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5. Next, we have some sector performance updates.
 
• Financials:
 

 
• REITs:
 

 
• Semicoductors:
 

 
• Industrials:
 

——————–

 
6. Here are some thematic portfolios popular with retail investors.
 
• Cannabis:
 

 
• Sports betting:
 

 
• Clean energy:
 

 
• Post-IPO shares:
 

 
• ARK Innovation …
 

 
… after sharp outflows last month.
 
Source: @jessefelder, @FT   Read full article  

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7. The 25/25/25/25 portfolio has performed well this year.
 
Source: @ISABELNET_SA, @BofAML  

Back to Index

 

Global Developments

1. Vessel prices have been surging.
 

 
Source: VesselsValue   
 
But dry bulk fleet growth is expected to slow, driven by an extremely limited order book.
 
Source: Breakwave Advisors   Read full article  

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2. Typically, risk assets trade sideways/down after the ISM PMI peaks.
 
Source: Nordea Markets  
 
3. The decline in China’s credit impulse suggests global manufacturing PMIs have peaked.
 
Source: Nordea Markets  

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Food for Thought

1. Vaccination progress rankings:
 
Source: The Economist   Read full article  
 
2. Vaccine sales:
 
Source: @axios   Read full article  
 
3. Traffic fatalities:
 
Source: Statista   Read full article  
 
4. Refugee numbers:
 
Source: Statista  
 
5. China’s presence in Africa:
 
Source: EY; @SamRamani2  
 
6. Which countries are more divided now than before COVID?
 
Source: Pew Research Center   Read full article  
 
7. Afghan equipment “losses”:
 
Source: Statista  
 
8. Global sea levels:
 
Source: @financialtimes   Read full article  
 
9. The longest national highway in the world:
 
Source: @TheBigDataStats   Read full article  

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