Will the Fed’s balance sheet roll-off start this summer?

The Daily Shot: 02-Feb-22
The United States
Canada
The United Kingdom
The Eurozone
Japan
Asia – Pacific
China
Emerging Markets
Cryptocurrency
Commodities
Energy
Equities
Credit
Rates
Food for Thought



 

The United States

1. Growth in US factory activity moderated some more in January. The ISM PMI index was roughly in line with expectations.
 

 
Growth in new orders continues to slow.
 

 
Hiring keeps improving.
 

 
The index of prices paid by factories increased last month but remains well below the peak.
 

 
Supply pressures continue to show signs of improvement.
 
Supplier delivery times:
 

 
Backlog of orders:
 

 
Below are the components of the ISM PMI index.
 
Source: Mizuho Securities USA  
 
Some leading indicators suggest that we will see further moderation in US manufacturing growth.
 
The orders/inventories spread:
 
Source: @MrBlonde_macro  
 
The regional Fed manufacturing indices’ surprise indicator:
 
Source: @MrBlonde_macro  
 
S&P 500 earnings revision breadth:
 
Source: @MrBlonde_macro  
 
Separately, here is the ISM Milwaukee PMI (large manufacturing hub):
 

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2. US vehicle sales rose sharply in January, suggesting that dealer inventories are improving.
 

 
3. Job openings held near the peak in December, topping forecasts.
 

 
Vacancies in some sectors have peaked for now.
 

 
This chart shows voluntary resignations vs. layoffs.
 

 
The labor market remains exceptionally tight. Here are three key indicators.
 
Unemployment-to-openings ratio (number of unemployed per job opening):
 

 
Hires-to-openings ratio:
 

 
Quits-to-hires ratio:
 

 
All industries are struggling with labor shortages.
 
Source: Oxford Economics  
 
This chart shows quit rates by industry.
 
Source: Wells Fargo Securities  

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4. Private construction spending continues to climb, …
 
Source: Chart and data provided by Macrobond  
 
… driven by residential activity.
 
Source: Wells Fargo Securities  
 
The decline in the headline figure was due to slower public construction spending.
 

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5. Where do different sell-side forecasters see the fed funds target rate this year?
 
Source: Bloomberg   Read full article  
 
Wells Fargo expects the Fed to initiate the balance sheet roll-off this summer.
 
Source: Wells Fargo Securities  

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6. The Evercore ISI Restaurants Survey points to reduced mobility in January.
 
Source: Evercore ISI Research  


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Canada

1. Factory activity held up well in January.
 

 
2. Manufacturing input price increases are moderating.
 

 
3. The GDP is now firmly above pre-COVID levels.
 


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The United Kingdom

1. Home price appreciation is accelerating again.
 

 
December mortgage approvals surprised to the upside.
 

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2. Consumer credit growth topped expectations.
 

 
3. Household excess savings are leveling off at £185 billion.
 
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics  
 
4. The UK’s biggest container port has been very congested.
 
Source: Oxford Economics  


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The Eurozone

1. Germany’s unemployment continues to shrink.
 

 
At the Eurozone level, the unemployment rate hit a new low. The ECB isn’t targeting the labor market, but perhaps this is a hint to rethink the dovish stance.
 

 
The market sees the ECB shifting direction soon. Bund yields continue to climb.
 

 
Here is the 2-year swap rate.
 

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2. German retail sales tumbled in December, but high-frequency indicators point to some improvement in January.
 

 
3. Just as we saw in Germany and Spain, consumer inflation in France topped expectations.
 

 
4. Growth in Italian manufacturing activity is moderating.
 

 
5. The PMI improvement at the Eurozone level points to stronger industrial production in December and January.
 
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics  


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Japan

1. COVID cases are hitting new highs.
 

 
2. The yen appears undervalued/oversold (2 charts).
 
Source: Alpine Macro  
 
Source: Alpine Macro  
 
Real yield differentials point to a lower USD/JPY.
 
Source: Alpine Macro  


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Asia – Pacific

1. These two charts suggest that the RBNZ will remain hawkish.
 
New Zealand’s home price appreciation:
 

 
New Zealand’s unemployment rate:
 

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2. Australia’s employment-to-population ratio is hitting new highs.
 
Source: @WSJecon  
 
3. This chart shows the expected working-age population changes across Asian economies.
 
Source: Natixis  


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China

1. Here is the stringency index for various countries. China stands out with its zero-Covid policy.
 
Source: Barclays Research  
 
2. Below is China’s power generation by energy source.
 
Source: Fitch Ratings  
 
3. A large USD-denominated China equity ETF has been experiencing substantial inflows.
 
Source: Chris Murphy, Susquehanna International Group  
 
4. Finally, we have the distribution of China’s Ministry of Science and Technology funding of research projects.
 
Source: Protocol   Read full article  


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Emerging Markets

1. Let’s begin with Chile.
 
Economic activity (peaking):
 

 
Industrial production (below consensus):
 

 
Expectations of commercial activity (still robust):
 

 
Copper production (stronger):
 

 
The unemployment rate (at pre-COVID levels):
 

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2. Brazil’s January manufacturing PMI report was terrible. Factory activity is firmly in contraction territory.
 

 
3. Mexican factory activity also tumbled in January.
 

 
4. South Africa’s manufacturing growth strengthened further last month.
 

 
5. India’s bond yields are surging.
 

 
Source: Bloomberg   Read full article  

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6. More downside risks for EM currencies?
 
Source: BCA Research  


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Cryptocurrency

1. Bitcoin is holding resistance.
 

 
2. The crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from “extreme fear” territory last week, which means bearish sentiment is starting to fade.
 
Source: Arcane Research   Read full article  
 
3. The chart below shows the decline in long BTC liquidations, which could lead to a short squeeze if prices recover.
 
Source: Glassnode   Read full article  
 
4. The SEC is concerned about the suitability of bitcoin as the underlying asset for a spot-based ETF.
 
Source: CoinDesk   Read full article  
 
5. Crypto hedge funds have significantly outperformed the largest 50 hedge funds since inception in 2014.
 
Source: FactorResearch   Read full article  
 
6. Crypto hedge funds have a high correlation to bitcoin, which means these funds represent crypto beta rather than alpha.
 
Source: FactorResearch   Read full article  
 
7. Here is a look at select bitcoin ETFs and ETPs assets under management.
 
Source: FactorResearch   Read full article  
 
8. A majority of crypto ownership is concentrated among “whales” – early investors who are sitting on a large profit.
 
Source: BCA Research  
 
9. The number of new cryptocurrencies continues to rise.
 
Source: BCA Research  


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Commodities

1. Bloomberg’s agriculture index continues to surge.
 

 
2. Will we see a breakout in gold?
 
Source: barchart.com, h/t @DowGoldEquals1  
 
3. The world is highly dependent on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for cobalt. Worryingly, the country has been seeing a bout of political instability.
 
Source: Fitch Solutions Macro Research  


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Energy

1. Crack spreads have been widening, …
 

 
… which is boosting refinery businesses.
 

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2. Underinvestment in global upstream oil and gas could leave a $600bn hole to meet future demand.
 
Source: KKR  
 
3. The divergence between US rig numbers and crude oil prices continues to widen.
 
Source: Chart and data provided by Macrobond  


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Equities

1. The largest equity ETF which tracks the S&P 500 saw substantial outflows last month.
 

 
2. BofA’s clients were buying stocks last week.
 
Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi  
 
3. Here is the seasonal pattern for fund flows.
 
Source: SPDR Americas Research, @mattbartolini  
 
4. Below are the S&P 500 corrections since 1965.
 
Source: Oxford Economics  
 
5. Will the selloff spill over into February?
 
Source: LPL Research  
 
6. How did equity markets around the world perform last month?
 
Source: Hugo Ste-Marie, Portfolio & Quantitative Strategy Global Equity Research, Scotia Capital  
 
7. Fewer companies are beating margin estimates.
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  
 
Margins have declined in most sectors.
 
Source: @FactSet   Read full article  
 
But analysts expect a rebound.
 
Source: @FactSet   Read full article  
 
Source: Lindsey Bell, Ally  

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8. Share buyback activity remains near record highs.
 
Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi  
 
9. The VIX curve is back in contango.
 

 
10. Retail investors switched from calls to puts.
 
Source: @sentimentrader   Read full article  
 
11. Cannabis stocks continue to struggle.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  


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Credit

1. Munis saw substantial outflows in recent weeks.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
2. Here is the updated fixed income flows chart showing large high-yield outflows in January.
 
Source: SPDR Americas Research, @mattbartolini  


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Rates

1. The Treasury curve’s flattening pivot point shifted to the short end over the past week.
 

 
2. International investors have been selling Treasuries.
 
Source: Natixis  


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Food for Thought

1. Year-over-year US CPI changes, by category:
 
Source: Wells Fargo Securities  
 
2. Planned shifts in travel budgets to virtual meetings:
 
Source: The Weekly Quill   
 
3. Global box office revenue:
 
Source: @axios   Read full article  
 
4. Highest-paid female athletes:
 
Source: Statista  
 
5. Motor vehicle traffic fatalities in the US:
 
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation  
 
6. Social unrest globally:
 
Source: IMF   Read full article  
 
7. Trusting the government:
 
Source: Statista  
 
8. Face mask preferences:
 
Source: @CivicScience   Read full article  
 
9. Top 20 three-word phrases in Twitter headlines, by engagement:
 
Source: BuzzSumo   Read full article  

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