Business markups have been soaring which should keep margins elevated

The Daily Shot: 14-Apr-22
Administrative Update
The United States
Canada
The United Kingdom
The Eurozone
Asia – Pacific
China
Emerging Markets
Cryptocurrency
Commodities
Energy
Equities
Credit
Rates
Global Developments
Food for Thought



 

Administrative Update

 
As a reminder, The Daily Shot will not be published this Friday.


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The United States

1. The March PPI report was just awful, coming in well above consensus estimates. The monthly increase in producer prices (2nd panel below) was the highest in years.
 

 
Price gains were broad, with the core PPI rising by over 9% year-over-year.
 

 
These days, companies like to tell customers that they must boost prices to cover rising costs. But that’s only part of the story. Business markups have been soaring, which should keep margins elevated.
 

 
Here are a few other PPI trends.
 
Food:
 

 
Transportation and warehousing services:
 

 
Semi-trailer trucks:
 

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2. Per-mile truckload linehaul rates continue to surge.
 
Source: Cass Information Systems  
 
But truck driver shortages are moderating.
 
Source: Cass Information Systems  

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3. Next, let’s take a look at some detail behind the March CPI report.
 
Alternative measures of core inflation have been skyrocketing, pointing to broad price gains.
 

 
Here are the annualized 3-month changes in the sticky CPI.
 

 
The share of CPI items with 4% or higher price gains has exploded.
 
Source: @atanzi   Read full article  
 
This chart shows the CPI index vs. the 2% trends.
 
Source: Mizuho Securities USA  
 
The core goods CPI ticked lower as used car prices declined.
 

 
But core services inflation continues to surge, boosted by shelter costs.
 

 
Below is a select set of CPI components (year-over-year).
 
Food at home:
 

 
By the way, here is the “food at home” vs. “food away from home” CPI spread.
 
Source: BofA Global Research; @MichaelAArouet  
 
Shelter:
 

 
New cars:
 

 
Car rentals:
 

 
Cleaning products:
 

 
Veterinarian services:
 

 
Summary:
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  

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4. Surveys point to consumers cutting back on discretionary spending due to high inflation. But it’s not clear just how much of a pullback in spending we are likely to see.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
5. The current manufacturing ISM PMI expansion is on track to be the second-longest after the 2017-2018 cycle.
 
Source: MarketDesk Research  
 
Is manufacturing activity destined to follow the Dec 2017 – Dec 2020 trend?
 
Source: Alpine Macro  

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6. Strong labor markets will keep recession at bay over the next 12 months, according to Morgan Stanley.
 
Source: Morgan Stanley Research  
 
But worsening small business outlook could dampen job growth.
 
Source: TS Lombard  


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Canada

The BoC hiked rates by 50 bps, …
 

 
… boosting its inflation projections.
 
Source: Scotiabank Economics  
 
Quantitative tightening is on.
 
Source: Scotiabank Economics  
 
Wells Fargo expects the BoC to push the policy rate to 3.5%.
 
Source: Wells Fargo Securities  
 
The loonie jumped.
 


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The United Kingdom

1. As we saw yesterday, the CPI report was a shocker. And inflation is yet to peak.
 
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics  
 
Core inflation is pushing toward 6%.
 

 
And the core goods CPI is expected to keep rising.
 
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics  
 
Here are a couple of CPI components.
 
Clothing:
 

 
Furniture:
 

 
The retail price index is up 9% vs. a year ago.
 

 
Producer prices are up almost 12%.
 

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2. The pound is rebounding.
 

 
3. Home price appreciation was strong in February.
 

 
The RICS indicator points to a robust housing market.
 


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The Eurozone

1. Italian industrial production climbed in February.
 

 
2. The combination of ZEW and Sentix indicators points to downside risks for the euro-area business activity.
 
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics  
 
3. Next, we have a couple of macro trends.
 
Household savings rate:
 
Source: Eurostat   Read full article  
 
Household investment rate:
 
Source: Eurostat   Read full article  

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4. Here is how the vote share has changed since 2017 in France.
 
Source: @financialtimes   Read full article  
 
5. The gap between European bank shares (relative performance) and Bund yields continues to widen.
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  


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Asia – Pacific

1. Dollar-yen touched a 20-year high, but the long-term resistance level appears to be holding.
 

 
2. Foreigners have been buying Japanese shares, …
 

 
… while Japanese investors have been dumping foreign shares.
 

——————–

 
3. As expected, South Korea’s central bank hiked rates.
 

 
4. Singapore’s Q1 GDP growth was below forecasts.
 

 
5. Australia’s March jobs report was a bit softer than expected, but the trend remains strong.
 

 
The unemployment rate is holding near record lows.
 

 
Australian consumer inflation expectations continue to climb.
 

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6. Next, we have some updates on New Zealand.
 
The market expects a steeper rate hike trajectory.
 
Source: Scotiabank Economics  
 
Inflation is yet to peak (2 charts).
 
Source: Scotiabank Economics  
 
Source: ANZ Research  
 
Home sales remain relatively soft.
 


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China

1. Imports were weaker than expected, …
 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  
 

 
… boosting China’s trade surplus.
 

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2. The stock market points to a rebound in real estate activity.
 
Source: Alpine Macro  
 
But urban floor space construction and housing investment are expected to trend lower over the next 30 years.
 
Source: Lowy Institute  

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3. Online sales growth has been slowing.
 
Source: MacroPolo   Read full article  
 
4. China’s policy banks have cut back on overseas energy project financing.
 
Source: Boston University¬†Global Development Policy Center   Read full article  
 
5. The renminbi will continue to face downward pressures.
 
Source: Alpine Macro  
 
6. China depends on semiconductor equipment from the US and its allies.
 
Source: Gavekal Research  


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Emerging Markets

1. Let’s begin with India.
 
Exports hit a record high.
 

 
Coal inventories remain tight.
 
Source: @JKempEnergy  
 
Here is the contribution from food items to the headline CPI.
 
Source: ANZ Research  

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2. Vietnam’s domestic vehicle sales have been very strong.
 

 
3. Russia’s consumer prices continue to surge.
 

 
4. Brazil’s retail sales are rebounding.
 

 
5. Colombia’s manufacturing output has been robust.
 

 
6. Inflation in EM Asia has been subdued, mainly because of lower pork prices in China and fragile pandemic recoveries. But that’s starting to change.
 
Source: Capital Economics  
 
EM economies are seeing more upside CPI surprises.
 
Source: TS Lombard  


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Cryptocurrency

1. Bitcoin appears oversold, similar to what occurred in late February.
 
Source: CoinDesk   Read full article  
 
2. 19% of the Bitcoin hashrate (computing power used to process transactions on the blockchain), is now powered by public mining companies.
 
Source: @ArcaneResearch  
 
3. More traders have been holding Shiba Inu’s SHIB token (another dog-themed crypto) for more than a year. Still, these addresses account for only 5% of the total supply.
 
Source: IntoTheBlock   Read full article  


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Commodities

1. LME tin Inventories have been shrinking for years.
 
Source: BofA Global Research; @chigrl  
 
2. European wheat prices are surging again.
 

 
3. US cotton futures hit the highest level in over a decade.
 


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Energy

1. Oil prices are rebounding as China “comes back online.”
 

 
Oil backwardation is moving higher.
 

——————–

 
2. US crude oil inventories increased last week (2 charts).
 

 

 
Gasoline inventories are now above last year’s levels (in terms of days of supply).
 

 
US refined products demand has been soft amid elevated prices.
 
Gasoline:
 

 
Total refined products:
 
Source: @HFI_Research  
 
Refinery runs slumped last week.
 

——————–

 
3. US natural gas futures are trading near $7/mmbtu for the first time since 2008.
 

 
4. US nuclear power output has been falling.
 
Source: EIA   Read full article  
 
But uranium prices are surging (driven by expected global demand and elevated fossil fuel prices).
 

 
Source: Markets Insider   Read full article  
 
That’s boosting uranium companies’ shares.
 


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Equities

1. Stocks got a boost from a better-than-expected US CPI report on Wednesday. But rising real rates will remain a headwind for growth equities.
 

 
2. The energy sector has been masking weaker earnings revisions.
 
Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi  
 
3. There was a strong relationship between dividend yield and returns during the first quarter.
 
Source: Global X ETFS   Read full article  
 
4. Will the iShares Russell 2,000 small-cap ETF (IWM) break out relative to the S&P 500? Previous relative oversold signals resulted in a few months of consolidation before a confirmed breakout.
 
Source: Dantes Outlook  
 
5. WIll fund managers further reduce their equity allocations as they sour on economic growth?
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
6. Next, we have some sector performance updates.
 
Consumer Discretionary:
 

 
Tech:
 

 
Transportation (boosted by airlines):
 

 
Industrials:
 

 
Energy:
 

 
Materials:
 

 
Metals & Mining:
 

 
Here is a look at sector performance during different macro conditions.
 
Source: Stifel  


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Credit

1. US banks have built up ample reserves amid improving credit quality.
 
Source: MRB Partners  
 
2. A wall of expiring office leases could put pressure on office property loans.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
3. CLOs could face a swell of CCC debt (which tends to pressure overcollateralization limits).
 
Source: @AdamTempkinNYC, @ArroyoNieto   Read full article  
 
4. This year has been very challenging for munis.
 


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Rates

1. The Treasury curve has been steepening. A better than expected CPI report held down shorter-term yields, while the Fed’s quantitative tightening plan boosted longer-dated yields.
 

 

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2. The market no longer sees the fed funds rate hitting 3%.
 


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Global Developments

1. The dollar has maintained its uptrend over the past year.
 
Source: Fitch Solutions Macro Research  
 
A narrower US fiscal deficit could offer support for the dollar.
 
Source: Fitch Solutions Macro Research  
 
Speculative long dollar positioning is at an extreme.
 
Source: Fitch Solutions Macro Research  

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2. Investors increasingly see weaker economic growth ahead (2 charts), …
 
Source: Hugo Ste-Marie, Portfolio & Quantitative Strategy Global Equity Research, Scotia Capital  
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
… as financial conditions tighten.
 
Source: Moody’s Investors Service  

——————–

 
3. The multi-decade decline in governments’ interest payments is now over.
 
Source: OECD   Read full article  


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Food for Thought

1. US legal immigration:
 
Source: @Reuters, @TheMarketDog, @pewresearch   Read full article  
 
2. Net migration in the largest US cities:
 
Source: @TaylorAMarr  
 
Net migration in the fastest-growing US cities:
 
Source: @TaylorAMarr  
 
Population changes by county type:
 
Source: @odetakushi  

——————–

 
3. Nursing home employment:
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
4. Avoidable deaths and maternal mortality:
 
Source: @axios   Read full article  
 
5. EVs’ highest estimated range:
 
Source: Statista  
 
6. Conspiracy theories about Ukraine:
 
Source: @YouGovAmerica   Read full article  
 
7. Government responses to Russia’s invasion:
 
Source: The Economist   Read full article  
 
8. “Really strong” Zelenskyy tea from India:
 
Source: Aromica Tea  

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The next Daily Shot will be out on Monday, the 18th.
 
Have a great weekend!


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