US manufacturing activity is probably in contraction mode

The Daily Shot: 17-Jun-22
The United States
Canada
The United Kingdom
Europe
Asia – Pacific
China
Emerging Markets
Cryptocurrency
Commodities
Energy
Equities
Global Developments
Food for Thought



 

The United States

1. The Philly Fed’s manufacturing index showed a similar trend to the NY Fed’s report.
 
The headline index slumped.
 

 
Demand is rapidly shrinking. The index of expected new orders dipped below the worst levels of the financial crisis.
 

 
Hiring remains strong, but manufacturers do not expect the trend to last.
 

 
Supply chain issues are melting away with falling demand.
 
Unfilled orders:
 

 
Supplier delivery times:
 

 
But cost pressures persist. Upstream suppliers haven’t gotten the memo yet – the party is ending.
 

 
Manufacturing activity at the national level is probably in contraction mode.
 
Source: @OrenKlachkin  

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2. Google search frequency for “recession” surged in recent weeks, …
 
Source: Jack Ablin, Cresset Wealth Advisors  
 
… as financial conditions tighten further.
 

 
According to Wells Fargo, the US will enter a recession in Q2 of next year.
 
Source: Wells Fargo Securities  

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3. Initial jobless claims remain below pre-COVID levels (multi-year lows for this time of the year).
 

 

 
But it’s only a matter of time before unemployment applications start picking up, as labor demand slows.
 
Source: TS Lombard  
 
Wells Fargo sees the unemployment rate hitting 5% by the end of next year.
 
Source: Wells Fargo Securities  

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3. The Evercore ISI trucking company sales survey is drifting lower but remains elevated.
 
Source: Evercore ISI Research  
 
4. Next, we have some updates on the housing market.
 
Housing starts slumped in May.
 

 
Building permits got a boost from multi-family housing, which has been very strong (3rd panel).
 

 
The NAHB survey points to further weakness in residential construction ahead.
 
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics  
 
Here is the Evercore ISI Homebuilders Sales Survey.
 
Source: Evercore ISI Research  
 
New home inventories point to housing price declines ahead.
 
Source: Piper Sandler¬†  
 
Home equity withdrawals accelerated last year.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  

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5. The federal budget continues to surprise to the upside.
 

 
6. Teachers are not in a hurry to return to work, …
 

 
Source: @axios   Read full article  
 
…which explains a substantial portion of the government job recovery deficit.
 
Source: @MarcGoldwein, @BudgetHawks, @katekgen  


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Canada

1. A 75 bps rate hike is expected in July.
 

 
2. Financial institutions are well-capitalized.
 
Source: Oxford Economics  
 
Liquidity among financial institutions is historically high.
 
Source: Oxford Economics  

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3. Home sales slowed sharply in more expensive areas.
 
Source: Scotiabank Economics  


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The United Kingdom

1. The BoE delivered a 25 bps rate hike, as expected.
 

 
2. Inflation will remain well above 6% until the end of Q1-2023, according to Fitch Ratings.
 
Source: Fitch Ratings  
 
3. Real wage growth hit the lowest level in decades.
 
Source: Chart and data provided by Macrobond  
 
4. This chart shows the drivers of labor inactivity.
 
Source: ING  


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Europe

1. Excess savings in the Eurozone continue to grow (but are eroded by surging inflation).
 
Source: Longview Economics  
 
2. Switzerland’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates for the first time in 15 years. The Swiss franc surged by most since 2015 (chart shows the euro declining against the franc).
 

 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  

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3. The Czech PPI is nearing 30%.
 

 
The Czech 10yr yield hit the highest level in two decades.
 


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Asia – Pacific

1. The BoJ is sticking with its yield control policy, which is becoming a headache for the central bank. Can you tell which point on the curve the BoJ is trying to pin down? The market wants to take yields higher as inflation rises, and this policy looks increasingly shaky.
 

 

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2. We got a cautious rate hike from Taiwan’s central bank.
 

 
Source: Nikkei Asia   Read full article  

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3. Asia ex. China continues to register equity outflows.
 
Source: @ANZ_Research  


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China

1. Supplier delivery times are starting to ease.
 
Source: Longview Economics  
 
2. Households are deleveraging (2 charts).
 
Source: BCA Research  
 
Source: TS Lombard  

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3. Real activity has deviated far below trend, unlike the US and Eurozone.
 
Source: Numera Analytics  
 
4. Lockdowns have resulted in a fiscal shock.
 
Source: Gavekal Research  
 
Local governments have been borrowing heavily, boosting system-wide credit balances.
 
Source: BCA Research  


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Emerging Markets

1. The Hungarian central bank delivered a surprise (50 bps) rate hike.
 

 
2. Turkish consumers will resume moving their deposits out of lira.
 
Source: Capital Economics  
 
Source: Alpine Macro  

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3. Economic data, including exports, have been weaker than expected across EM nations.
 
Source: PGM Global  
 
The terms of trade shock from higher energy prices have been more severe for China, South Korea, and India. Indonesia, however, has benefitted from higher exports of oil, gas, and cooking oils.
 
Source: PGM Global  


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Cryptocurrency

1. The $20k support is holding for now.
 

 
2. It’s been a tough week for cryptos.
 
Source: FinViz  
 
3. Bitcoin’s market value relative to its realized value (MVRV) is not at an extreme low, which means BTC is not “deeply undervalued.”
 
Source: Glassnode   Read full article  
 
4. Small bitcoin holders have been accumulating during the recent sell-off, although balance growth has been waning.
 
Source: Glassnode   Read full article  
 
This chart shows small BTC holders have been accumulating since the November price peak of around $69K, accounting for 48% of new coin issuance over the same period. They most likely face unrealized losses at this point.
 
Source: Glassnode   Read full article  

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5. Retail investors have been providing liquidity to institutions dumping crypto-linked stocks and ETFs.
 
Source: Vanda Research  


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Commodities

1. Iron ore is tumbling as China’s COVID disruptions linger.
 

 
2. The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) is holding short-term support.
 
Source: Aazan Habib; Paradigm Capital  
 
3. Demand for commodities is starting to wane.
 
Source: Numera Analytics  


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Energy

1. US natural gas futures slumped this week due to the Freeport LNG outage which sharply reduced US LNG exports.
 

 
2. Forecasters have been boosting oil demand projections. There doesn’t seem to be much concern about recession risks, which have risen substantially in the US and the EU.
 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  
 
Source: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies  

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3. The US is expected to remain a net-energy exporter (2 charts).
 
Source: @EIAgov  
 
Source: @EIAgov  

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4. Fund managers expect oil to outperform other asset classes.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
5. This chart shows US utility-scale energy storage additions.
 
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence  
 
Many storage projects increasingly face challenges.
 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  


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Equities

1. It’s been a rough month for stocks so far, …
 

 
… as the market rout deepens.
 

 
Historically, stocks performed well after entering a bear market.
 
Source: LPL Research  

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2. Only 2% of S&P 500 members are above their 50-day moving average. Time for a “relief” bounce?
 

 
3. The current P/E drawdown is in line with the COVID selloff.
 
Source: Hugo Ste-Marie, Portfolio & Quantitative Strategy Global Equity Research, Scotia Capital  
 
S&P 500 forward P/E ratio:
 

 
S&P 600 (small caps) forward P/E (lowest since the financial crisis):
 

 
The Nasdaq 100:
 

 
Global shares ex. US forward P/E:
 

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4. The Philly Fed’s manufacturing report (see the US section) points to severe deterioration in corporate earnings ahead.
 
Source: @MikaelSarwe  
 
5. Small caps are entering a seasonally unfavorable period.
 
Source: SentimenTrader  
 
6. Next, we have some updates on retail investor trends.
 
Retail investors’ drawdown is almost 35%.
 
Source: Vanda Research  
 
Retail investors were “buying the dip” at the end of the day after the CPI shock (June 13th and 14th). But that hasn’t been enough to offset massive institutional selling.
 
Source: Vanda Research  
 
The meme bubble has deflated.
 

 
Source: TS Lombard  
 
But new meme stocks are still popping up.
 

 
Source: TheStreet   Read full article  

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7. The rise in real rates remains a headwind for growth stocks.
 
Source: TS Lombard  
 
8. Next, we have some sector updates.
 
Fund managers’ positioning:
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
Fund flows:
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  
 
Changes in earnings estimates:
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  
 
The risk/return profile:
 
Source: Mizuho Securities USA  
 
After taking a beating in recent weeks, bank share performance is basically flat over the past four years (and that includes dividends).
 

 
According to Bankrate, “the national average interest rate for savings accounts is 0.07%.” At the same time, the one-year T-Bill yield is near 3%. A bank would have to work really hard not to mint money on NIM in this environment.
 

 
Airline shares have been getting smoked.
 

 
And yet, the Evercore ISI airline sales survey hit the highest level in a decade.
 
Source: Evercore ISI Research  


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Global Developments

1. Corporate margins remain elevated. Analysts expect them to move much lower going forward.
 
Source: TS Lombard  
 
2. Fund managers increasingly expect stagflation.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
3. This chart shows the 2022 GDP growth forecast revisions since March (from Fitch Ratings).
 
Source: Fitch Ratings  
 
And here are the changes in CPI forecasts.
 
Source: Fitch Ratings  


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Food for Thought

1. Office foot traffic relative to 2019:
 
Source: Placer.ai  
 
2. Share of workers earning less than two-thirds of median earnings:
 
Source: @BW   Read full article  
 
3. Number of unicorns by industry:
 
Source: TradingPedia  
 
4. US LGBT educational attainment:
 
Source: Wells Fargo Securities  
 
5. The global fertility rate over time:
 
Source: Visual Capitalist   Read full article  
 
6. New Mexico fires:
 
Source: The New York Times   Read full article  
 
7. The Russian Empire of 1914:
 
Source: Statista  
 
8. The composition of global airline fleets:
 
Source: Visual Capitalist   Read full article  

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Have a great weekend!


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