Wage growth shows signs of moderating

The Daily Shot: 18-Oct-22
The United States
Canada
The United Kingdom
The Eurozone
Europe
Asia – Pacific
China
Emerging Markets
Cryptocurrency
Energy
Equities
Credit
Rates
Global Developments
Food for Thought



 

The United States

1. The first regional manufacturing report of the month shows slowing factory activity.
 

 
Source: MarketWatch   Read full article  
 
The orders index held steady.
 

 
Price pressures persist, with more companies reporting paying higher prices in October.
 

 
Supplier bottlenecks have eased, …
 

 
… signaling falling corporate margins.
 
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics  
 
Expectations indicators point to a gloomy outlook among the region’s manufacturers.
 
Expected shipments:
 

 
Expected business conditions:
 

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2. The Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker appears to have peaked.
 

 
And the NFIB small business compensation plans index suggests that wage growth will continue to slow.
 
Source: Longview Economics  
 
Corporate CFOs also see slower wage growth ahead.
 
Source: Evercore ISI Research  

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3. Business pricing power, while still elevated relative to pre-COVID levels, has been moderating …
 
Source: Evercore ISI Research  
 
… especially in retail, …
 
Source: Evercore ISI Research  
 
… as inventories recover.
 
Source: Evercore ISI Research  

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4. CEO confidence has deteriorated, …
 
Source: The Conference Board  
 
… as demand growth slows.
 
Source: The Conference Board  

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5. Business applications remain elevated relative to pre-COVID levels.
 
Source: Arcano Economics  
 
6. BofA’s quarterly results suggest that credit card demand remains robust while delinquencies are relatively low (for now).
 
Source: @JackFarley96  
 
Savings remain elevated, which should provide a cushion as the economy slows.
 
Source: @TheTranscript_  

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7. How has goods consumption changed from the pre-pandemic trend?
 
Source: Bain & Company¬†  


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Canada

1. Consumer confidence continues to deteriorate.
 

 
2. Business outlook declined sharply last quarter, according to the BoC’s survey.
 

 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  
 
Here are some additional trends from the survey.
 
Sales outlook:
 
Source: BoC  
 
Wage gains expectations:
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
Drivers of price expectations:
 
Source: BoC  
 
Labor and supply bottlenecks:
 
Source: BoC  
 
Input and output price expectations:
 
Source: BoC  
 
Inflation expectations:
 
Source: BoC  
 
Home price appreciation:
 
Source: Scotiabank Economics  


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The United Kingdom

1. The government is walking back most of the tax cuts.
 
Source: NBC News   Read full article  
 
Source: @TheIFS  
 
The pound and gilts jumped, boosting risk appetite globally.
 

 

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2. Economists increasingly expect the UK’s economy to contract in 2023.
 

 
3. Fund managers are very bearish on UK equities.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
4. On a separate note, this map shows EV charging stations in London.
 
Source: @BBGVisualData   Read full article  


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The Eurozone

1. The Eurozone is facing stagflation next year. Here are the consensus forecasts.
 
Growth:
 

 
Inflation:
 

 
Germany:
 


 
Italy:
 

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2. The ECB’s rate hikes will eventually catch up with the Fed, which should tighten yield differentials.
 
Source: MRB Partners  
 
3. German 10-year bund valuations have normalized to some extent (relative to fair value), although we could see some additional upside in yields.
 
Source: MRB Partners  
 
4. Real wages are moving deep into negative territory.
 
Source: Morgan Stanley Research; III Capital Management  
 
Source: Oxford Economics  


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Europe

1. The amount of commercial bank cash held with the Swiss National Bank fell by another 20 billion Swiss francs last week as the SNB tightens monetary policy.
 

 
2. Poland’s core CPI continues to surge.
 

 
3. Fund managers are concerned about European sovereign debt risks.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  


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Asia – Pacific

1. Japan’s economic activity firmed in August.
 
Services:
 

 
Industrial production:
 

 
Capacity utilization:
 

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2. New Zealand’s inflation unexpectedly accelerated last quarter.
 

 
The November rate hike is now likely to be 75 bps (rather than 50 bps), according to markets.
 

 
Here is the 2yr bond yield.
 


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China

1. Will the long-term uptrend in Chinese equities relative to broader EM hold? Analysts are increasingly bullish on China’s stocks.
 
Source: Alpine Macro  
 
2. The 2022 deposit surge should support consumption next year.
 
Source: Evercore ISI Research  
 
Source: Evercore ISI Research  

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3. The inventory of unfinished properties remains elevated.
 
Source: BCA Research  
 
4. Housing will be a drag on growth.
 
Source: @acemaxx, @GoldmanSachs  


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Emerging Markets

1. Brazil’s economic activity remains robust (note that the seasonally-adjusted figure reported elsewhere is misleading).
 

 
2. Indian equities appear overbought relative to broader EM, in dollar terms.
 
Source: Alpine Macro  
 
3. EM bond outflows continue.
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  


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Cryptocurrency

1. Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range.
 
Source: Glassnode   Read full article  
 
Here is the 30-day realized vol.
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  
 
Prolonged periods of low volatility typically precede large price moves.
 
Source: Glassnode   Read full article  

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2. Most altcoins have weakened relative to bitcoin over the past ten days. The chart compares relative strength and momentum.
 
Source: @StocktonKatie  
 
3. Crypto investment products saw minor inflows last week, driven by long and short bitcoin funds. That implies a neutral stance among investors.
 
Source: James Butterfil, CoinShares   Read full article  
 
US crypto funds saw the largest inflows last week, while Sweden-based funds continued to see outflows.
 
Source: James Butterfil, CoinShares   Read full article  


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Energy

1. The COVID-era rebound in US oil production has been slower than expected.
 
Source: Princeton Energy Advisors  
 
2. US natural gas bills will be much higher this winter.
 
Source: @EIAgov, h/t @dailychartbook   Read full article  
 
3. European natural gas futures continue to sink.
 


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Equities

1. Stock futures are sharply higher as risk appetite returns. The fiscal u-turn in the UK helped ease global concerns.
 

 
The S&P 500 closing above the 200-week moving average also helped.
 

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2. Bank stocks are starting to outperform staples, which is a risk-on development.
 
Source: Aazan Habib, Paradigm Capital  
 
3. Small caps got a boost from the US dollar strength.
 

 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  

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4. Deceleration in earnings will intensify in a recession scenario.
 
Source: @LondonSW, @markets   Read full article  
 
Leading indicators continue to signal weaker earnings ahead.
 
Source: LPL Research  
 
Q3 earnings downgrades have accelerated, …
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
… now showing minimal growth.
 
Source: LPL Research  

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5. Institutional investors kept selling stocks through the first week of the month. Will they get caught massively underinvested if the market turns?
 
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence  
 
6. Fund managers are sitting on a lot of cash.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
7. Fund managers’ extreme bearishness has not yet translated into outflow capitulation.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
8. The rise in real yields and a strong dollar have weighed on tech stocks. Are we due for a pause? (2 charts)
 
Source: Numera Analytics  
 
Source: Numera Analytics  

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9. Long-duration equities have underperformed this month as yields surged.
 


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Credit

1. High-yield spreads are tight relative to investment grade.
 

 
2. Tighter liquidity conditions point to wider junk bond spreads.
 
Source: Quill Intelligence  
 
3. Credit default swap activity is up this year.
 
Source: JP Morgan Research; III Capital Management  
 
4. This year’s US corporate debt issuance is the slowest since 2012.
 
Source: Oxford Economics  
 
5. US subprime auto delinquencies have been grinding higher.
 
Source: Fitch Ratings  
 
Auto dealers are reporting that financing is becoming harder to get for buyers.
 
Source: Evercore ISI Research  


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Rates

1. Commercial bank deposits have been shrinking. Financial media was quick to suggest that the decline is due to savers finding higher-interest options. That is wrong. Bank deposits are not impacted by depositor behavior and are instead driven by lending activity and the Fed.
 

 
The diagram below illustrates how quantitative easing boosts deposits. We are now witnessing the reversal of this process.
 
Source: Longview Economics  

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2. Banks’ securities holdings have been moving lower.
 
Source: Arcano Economics  
 
3. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is at support.
 

 
4. Fed officials have been more active in their communications recently.
 
Source: @ayeshatariq  
 
5. What will cause the Fed to pivot?
 
Source: BofA Global Research  


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Global Developments

1. Business activity is now contracting in nearly 60% of the world’s economies.
 
Source: Piper Sandler¬†  
 
2. Long US dollar is viewed as the most crowded trade.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
3. This chart shows the unemployment rate deviation from pre-COVID levels in select economies.
 
Source: JP Morgan Research; @carlquintanilla  


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Food for Thought

1. New leases signed for office space in the US:
 
Source: NBER   Read full article  
 
2. Reasons people have or don’t have a financial advisor:
 
Source: MagnifyMoney   Read full article  
 
3. Retail space per capita:
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
4. Eviction rates by household income:
 
Source: Liberty Street Economics   Read full article  
 
5. Global flying activity by income group:
 
Source: @giulio_mattioli  
 
6. The betting markets’ odds on which party will control the Senate:
 
Source: @PredictIt  
 
Senate race ad spending:
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  

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7. Biggest movie franchises:
 
Source: Statista  

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