The Daily Shot: 13-Aug-24
• The United States
• The Eurozone
• Europe
• Japan
• China
• Emerging Markets
• Cryptocurrency
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Rates
• Global Developments
• Food for Thought
The United States
1. Consumer inflation expectations eased further last month, according to the latest survey from the NY Fed.
• 1-year inflation expectations:
• 3-year inflation expectations:
• Diffusion graph of inflation expectations:
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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2. Next, we have some data on the labor market.
• Households are not too worried about unemployment.
– Probability of losing a job (holding at pre-COVID levels):
– Probability of unemployment rate being higher in 12 months:
• The unemployment rate is lower when adjusted for immigration.
Source: MRB Partners
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3. Here are some insights into the state of the US consumer.
• US households are increasingly concerned about not being able to make minimum debt payments.
• More 401-k participants are taking a hardship distribution.
Source: Bank of America Institute
• This chart shows credit card utilization rates by generation.
Source: Bank of America Institute
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4. Fund managers now consider a US recession the biggest tail risk.
Source: BofA Global Research
• Economists assign a 30% probability to a recession occurring within the next 12 months.
• This chart shows the probability of a recession as implied by various market indicators.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
• The consensus projections show slower GDP growth over the next couple of quarters but no recession.
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5. As of July, the federal budget deficit exceeded $1.5 trillion (fiscal year-to-date).
Source: @economics Read full article
Government interest expenses continue to climb.
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The Eurozone
1. Economists continue to downgrade their projections for this year’s household consumption in Germany.
Estimates for Germany’s industrial production have tumbled this month.
2. Economists are more upbeat on French GDP growth in 2024.
3. Here is a look at the euro-area net interest income by sector.
Source: @DanielKral1, @OxfordEconomics
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Europe
1. Asia-Europe container shipping costs keep climbing.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
2. The discount of European stocks relative to their US peers continues to widen.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
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Japan
1. The Invesco Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) displayed improving momentum over the past month, albeit within its long-term downtrend. Could we see a reversal?
• USD/JPY held short-term support, although strong resistance is ahead.
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2. The WisdomTree Hedged Equity Japan ETF registered some large outflows this month.
3. Fund managers have been rotating out of Japanese stocks.
Source: BofA Global Research
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China
1. Bond yields jumped as Beijing cracks down on debt purchases by banks.
Source: @markets Read full article
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2. The sell-off in Chinese equities relative to the rest of the world appears stretched.
Source: BCA Research
3. The wage gap between urban and rural areas has rapidly narrowed.
Source: BCA Research
4. China’s renewable energy usage surged last year.
Source: @climate Read full article
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Emerging Markets
1. India’s headline CPI dropped last month, but the core inflation edged higher.
Source: Times of India Read full article
• India’s industrial production growth slowed, surprising to the downside.
Source: The Hindu Read full article
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2. The Russian ruble has been under pressure as Ukraine makes gains on Russian territory.
Source: Reuters Read full article
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3. Turkey’s unemployment rate increased in June.
4. Mexico’s consumer confidence has leveled off.
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Cryptocurrency
1. August and September are typically challenging months for Bitcoin.
Source: @StocktonKatie
2. Short-term Bitcoin holders are currently experiencing the largest unrealized loss since the FTX implosion, based on their market value/realized value (MVRV) ratio.
Source: @glassnode
3. Crypto funds saw minor inflows last week, mostly via Ethereum-focused funds. There is typically a lag between price action and weekly fund flows. (2 charts)
Source: CoinShares Read full article
Source: CoinShares Read full article
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Commodities
1. US grains are under pressure …
… amid record-high crop yields.
Source: @markets Read full article
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2. Cocoa prices remain highly volatile but have now formed a wedge pattern.
3. Gold is trading near record highs.
The options market estimates a 20% probability that gold will be 10% or more higher by the end of November.
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Energy
1. Brent crude jumped above $80/bbl due to geopolitical uncertainty but encountered resistance at the 200-day moving average.
Source: @axios Read full article
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2. Energy firms’ CapEx investment has been rising.
Source: @EIAgov Read full article
3. Permian Basin’s natural gas is trading at negative prices amid transport challenges.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: The New York Times Read full article
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Equities
1. Fund managers’ sentiment dropped to a 7-month low in August.
Source: BofA Global Research
• Fund managers’ global growth expectations point to downside risks for stocks.
Source: BofA Global Research
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2. Concerns about the consumer persist in the market (2 charts).
Source: BofA Global Research
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3. Tech positioning has eased as earnings growth decelerates (2 charts).
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
Source: @markets Read full article
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4. The rotation into small caps has been reversing (2 charts).
Source: @markets Read full article
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5. The S&P 500 appears oversold based on short-term breadth readings.
Source: Aazan Habib, Paradigm Capital
6. The Fed is increasingly discussed on earnings calls.
Source: @markets Read full article
7. What percentage of funds own Magnificent 7 stocks?
Source: BofA Global Research; @dailychartbook
• Fund managers still see the Magnificent 7 exposure as the most crowded trade.
Source: BofA Global Research
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Rates
1. Speculative accounts are once again very short Treasury futures, …
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
… especially the 5-year note.
Source: Reuters Read full article
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2. Fund managers expect short-term rates and bond yields to decline in the months ahead (2 charts).
Source: BofA Global Research
Source: BofA Global Research
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Global Developments
1. Fund managers expect a soft landing for the global economy.
Source: BofA Global Research
2. Stock-bond correlations have declined sharply this month.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
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Food for Thought
1. Foreign-born population trends in top OECD immigrant-receiving countries:
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Read full article
2. Multiracial population by state:
Source: @axios Read full article
3. Share of workers earning less than $15 per hour:
Source: EPI Read full article
4. Delaware is the preferred domicile for S&P 500 companies.
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
5. Stock market capitalization distribution in 1900 and 2023:
Source: Visual Capitalist Read full article
6. Emmy Award nominations by network-streamer:
Source: @chartrdaily
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