The Daily Shot: 27-Sep-24
• The United States
• Canada
• The Eurozone
• Europe
• Japan
• Asia-Pacific
• China
• Emerging Markets
• Cryptocurrency
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Rates
• Food for Thought
The United States
1. Initial jobless claims show no signs of increasing layoffs, suggesting companies are in a holding pattern-hiring less but not resorting to layoffs either.
Here is the seasonally adjusted jobless claims index.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: MarketWatch Read full article
——————–
2. Last month, durable goods excluding transportation posted their largest increase of the year.
Source: MarketWatch Read full article
Inflation-adjusted capital goods orders edged lower.
——————–
3. The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to recover.
4. The Kansas City Fed’s regional manufacturing index fell further into contraction territory, but the outlook continued to improve.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
• Similarly, the current and future employment indicators have diverged, …
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
… as have the prices-charged indicators.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
——————–
5. Pending home sales remained depressed in August.
Source: Reuters Read full article
——————–
6. Corporate profits hit a record high in Q2.
Source: Reuters Read full article
• Last year’s GDI has been revised upward, …
Source: @economics Read full article
… nearly closing the gap with the GDP measure.
——————–
7. The US savings rate has been revised significantly higher.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
8. The revival in productivity has lowered unit labor costs and supported profitability. (2 charts)
Source: TS Lombard
Source: TS Lombard
Back to Index
Canada
• The CFIB Small and Medium-Sized Business Outlook Index declined this month but remained in growth territory.
• Here’s the breakdown of the CFIB index by sector and province.
• Wage and price plans continue to moderate.
Source: CFIB
Back to Index
The Eurozone
1. French bond spreads are widening again.
• The Spain/France 10-year yield spread turned negative for the first time since 2007 (2 charts).
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
Source: @markets Read full article
——————–
2. German consumer confidence edged higher this month.
• Italian consumer sentiment topped expectations, …
.. but Italy’s manufacturing confidence continues to deteriorate.
——————–
3. Spain’s real retail sales have been climbing.
4. The market anticipates deeper ECB rate cuts.
Source: ECB
5. The euro-area broad money supply growth continues to improve, exceeding forecasts.
• Loan growth is showing a tepid recovery, …
Source: RTT News Read full article
… hindered by elevated interest rates.
Source: ECB
Back to Index
Europe
1. Sweden’s consumer and manufacturing sentiment indicators have diverged significantly.
——————–
2. The SNB cut rates again, …
Source: @WSJ Read full article
… with the market expecting another 35 bps of reductions this year.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
——————–
3. Here is a look at suicide rates across the EU.
Source: Eurostat Read full article
Back to Index
Japan
1. Japan’s LDP selected Shigeru Ishiba as its new leader.
Source: @bpolitics Read full article
• Initially, the market anticipated Sanae Takaichi, who favors a weaker yen, causing the yen to plummet.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
However, with Ishiba’s selection, the yen reversed course, rallying sharply.
• Stocks were higher.
——————–
2. Tokyo inflation eased this month on a year-over-year basis, while core inflation remained unchanged.
Back to Index
Asia-Pacific
1. The South Korean won surged on Thursday.
2. New Zealand’s consumer sentiment is recovering.
Back to Index
China
1. The PBoC implemented its largest cut to the 14-day reverse repo rate in years.
2. Stocks continue to surge.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
• The Shanghai Composite Index is entering a seasonally strong period with a significant head start.
Source: Damanick Dantes; Bloomberg
——————–
3. China’s industrial profits tumbled in August.
Source: @economics Read full article
——————–
4. Gamblers are back …
Back to Index
Emerging Markets
1. With a 4-1 vote, Banxico delivered another rate cut.
2. Turkey’s industrial capacity utilization continues to move lower.
• Here is a look at foreign visitors to Turkey.
——————–
3. South Africa’s PPI continues to moderate.
4. EM debt and equity funds are seeing robust inflows.
Source: BofA Global Research
5. EM earnings are outperforming DM.
Source: MRB Partners
Back to Index
Cryptocurrency
1. It was a good week for cryptos, with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) outperforming top peers, although XRP underperformed.
Source: FinViz
Bitcoin climbed above $65K on Thursday.
——————–
2. Ongoing legal battles between Ripple and the SEC weighed on sentiment among XRP traders.
Source: DailyCoin Read full article
3. Traditional assets have experienced higher-than-usual volatility compared to Bitcoin over the past year.
Source: VanEck Read full article
4. Bitcoin mining consumption as a share of world power supply is expected to increase exponentially without new innovation in chip designs/energy efficiencies.
Source: VanEck Read full article
Back to Index
Commodities
1. Copper futures are surging in response to China’s monetary stimulus bazooka.
2. Silver prices hit a multi-year high.
Source: @markets Read full article
Silver mining firms are rallying.
——————–
3. Lithium mining stocks have surged in recent days.
Lithium prices have bottomed.
——————–
4. Coffee futures continue to rise.
Back to Index
Energy
1. Brent crude is trading below $72/bbl despite low US inventories and tensions in the Middle East.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
• Options traders have turned very bearish on Brent.
• Oil implied volatility is rising.
• Here is a look at options-implied probabilities of Brent crude ending below $60 or above $80/bbl.
——————–
2. Energy stocks tend to peak in the spring and bottom out in the fall.
Source: The Crude Chronicles
However, the energy sector broke below long-term support relative to the S&P 500.
• The beta of energy stocks to the S&P 500 has declined in recent years.
Source: The Crude Chronicles
Back to Index
Equities
1. The S&P 500 hit its 42nd record high of 2024 and is now up almost 34% year-over-year.
2. VIX is elevated, considering the S&P 500 continues to reach record highs.
3. The Nasdaq 100 breadth has been improving.
4. Consumer stocks are seeing outflows.
Source: BofA Global Research
5. Margins have contracted since the post-COVID highs in part because interest expenses have risen.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
6. Rates options and stock prices have diverged in their signaling of a soft landing.
Source: Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog
7. Retail investors still prefer large caps.
Source: JP Morgan Research; @WallStJesus
8. Here is a look at the hidden costs of options trades.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
Back to Index
Rates
1. Money market funds’ AUM hit a new high, …
… amid robust inflows.
Source: BofA Global Research
2. Treasury funds are seeing outflows.
Source: BofA Global Research
——————–
Food for Thought
1. Projected global vehicle sales by type:
Source: The Economist Read full article
2. Share of US TV streaming time by platform:
Source: @chartrdaily
3. Countries with the highest median wealth per capita:
4. Ukrainian and Russian population levels:
Source: @WSJ Read full article
5. Cheese consumption surges as milk drinking declines in the US.
Source: @chartrdaily
6. Frequent shifts in US political control (change elections):
Source: MUFG Securities
7. Growth acceleration in chicken breeds:
Source: Our World in Data
——————–
Have a great weekend!
Back to Index