The Daily Shot: 25-Oct-24
• The United States
• Canada
• The United Kingdom
• The Eurozone
• Europe
• Japan
• China
• India
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Rates
• Food for Thought
The United States
1. The flash US manufacturing PMI from S&P Global held in contraction territory this month.
On the other hand, the services PMI continues to show robust growth with improving demand.
• Output price gains are moderating.
Source: Reuters Read full article
——————–
2. US initial jobless claims eased further last week as the hurricane-related effects subsided.
Source: MarketWatch Read full article
• WARN data points to lower initial jobless claims in the coming months.
Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo
——————–
3. Last month’s new home sales surprised to the upside.
Here are the seasonally adjusted trends.
– By region:
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
– By stage of construction:
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
• New home inventories were in line with last year’s levels.
• Builders have been concentrating on smaller homes in response to depressed housing affordability.
Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi
Back to Index
Canada
1. Job vacancies dipped below pre-COVID levels.
Source: BCA Research
2. Mortgage payments are heading lower.
Source: Alpine Macro
Back to Index
The United Kingdom
1. UK manufacturing activity slipped back into contraction territory this month, according to S&P Global’s PMI report.
• Meanwhile, the services sector continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace.
• The composite employment index, covering both manufacturing and services, now indicates a net reduction in staffing.
——————–
2. According to this month’s CBI report, industrial orders remain subdued, …
… with business sentiment continuing to weaken.
• Industrial selling prices have stopped rising for the first time since 2020.
——————–
3. Consumer sentiment declined again this month.
4. The UK relies increasingly on immigration as births decline to match the rate of deaths.
Source: BofA Global Research
Back to Index
The Eurozone
1. The EUR/USD implied volatility has been surging ahead of the US elections.
2. The market is factoring in the possibility of jumbo ECB rate cuts in December and January.
Source: @markets Read full article
——————–
3. Next, let’s take a look at the October PMI reports.
• Manufacturing:
– Germany (slower contraction):
– France (persistent slump):
• Services:
– Germany (slightly faster expansion but soft demand):
– France (faster contraction):
• The composite employment index (manufacturing + services) shows faster staff reductions.
• Price pressures continue to ease.
Back to Index
Europe
1. European companies increasingly discuss tariffs on earnings calls.
Source: @economics Read full article
2. Here is a look at the EU-level government budget balance.
Source: Eurostat Read full article
3. Next, we have the EU’s trade balance with the US.
Source: @DanielKral1
Back to Index
Japan
1. The Tokyo CPI eased this month.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
——————–
2. Higher wages could support consumption.
Source: PGM Global
Back to Index
China
1. China-focused equity funds are seeing outflows.
Source: BofA Global Research
2. Lending to property developers remains substantially below last year’s levels.
Source: Commerzbank Research
3. Record defaults have struck the Chinese local debt market.
Source: @markets Read full article
Back to Index
India
1. Business activity growth remains remarkably strong.
– Manufacturing PMI:
– Services PMI:
• Hiring has accelerated.
——————–
2. India’s domestic investors have been counterbalancing fund outflows triggered by foreign investors.
Source: @markets Read full article
Back to Index
Commodities
1. Gold fund inflows surged in recent days.
Source: BofA Global Research
• Gold is having the best year in decades.
• Gold prices have remained above their 200-day moving average for 265 consecutive sessions.
• This chart illustrates central banks’ gold purchases per capita across select economies.
Source: The Economist Read full article
——————–
2. Palladium surged this week.
Source: @markets Read full article
——————–
3. Zinc has been rallying.
Source: @markets Read full article
4. Low water levels on the Mississippi River have significantly curtailed US soybean transport.
Source: @SusanNOBULL, @Barchart Read full article
Back to Index
Energy
1. Saudi crude oil sales hit the lowest level since 2021.
Source: @markets Read full article
——————–
2. BofA’s private clients have been exiting energy stocks.
Source: BofA Global Research
3. Global coal demand remains near record highs.
Source: @JavierBlas, @opinion Read full article
Back to Index
Equities
1. The S&P 500 has stayed above its 200-day moving average for 246 consecutive sessions.
2. The share buyback blackout window begins to reopen today, likely providing a tailwind for stocks.
Source: @neilksethi
3. Hedge funds are buying US shares.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @SteamroomTrader
4. Retail investors have been rotating out of ETFs and into single stocks. A sign of growing confidence?
Source: Vanda Research
• The AAII bull-bear spread declined this week.
——————–
5. The current bull market in small caps has been subdued.
Source: @jimwpaulsen
6. Upward revisions to analysts’ EPS estimates for the current quarter have been weak. The data below pertains to the MSCI World Index, with approximately 72% of its composition being US companies.
Source: @JeffreyKleintop
7. Here is NVIDIA’s market capitalization in perspective.
Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo
8. The chart below illustrates the geographical sales exposure for selected markets.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
Back to Index
Rates
1. US money market fund assets have exceeded $6.5 trillion for the first time.
2. Treasury implied volatility continues to diverge from realized volatility as the US elections approach.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
——————–
Food for Thought
1. Expected electricity consumption by data centers vs. whole countries:
Source: Alpine Macro
2. Fentanyl-related deaths surpass other drugs in the US.
Source: @business Read full article
• The rise in fentanyl-related deaths shifts to the western US.
Source: @bpolitics Read full article
——————–
3. Trends in unification and independence preferences among Taiwanese citizens:
Source: National Chengchi University
4. How Americans view China:
Source: The Economist Read full article
5. Factors influencing Americans’ decision to open 529 college savings plans:
Source: Saving For College
6. Increasing reliance on government transfers by county (2000 vs. 2022):
Source: EIG
7. Lightning strikes per 1,000 residents:
Source: PlayNJ.com
——————–
Have a great weekend!
Back to Index