The Daily Shot: 13-Nov-24
• The United States
• Canada
• The Eurozone
• Japan
• Asia-Pacific
• China
• India
• Emerging Markets
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Credit
• Global Developments
• Food for Thought
The United States
1. NFIB small business sentiment improved last month.
Source: @business Read full article
However, companies continue to report sluggish sales, …
… with more businesses citing weak sales as their “most important problem.”
Does this trend indicate potential weakness in the labor market ahead?
Source: @RenMacLLC
• The NFIB uncertainty index hit a record high.
• The index of compensation plans was unchanged in October.
• Businesses report fewer qualified job applicants.
——————–
2. The NY Fed’s Survey of US Consumer Expectations showed a further easing in 1-year inflation expectations.
Here is the distribution of expected inflation outcomes over time.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Slightly fewer households are concerned about their ability to make debt payments in the coming months.
Source: Reuters Read full article
• Households’ perceptions of the labor market have improved.
– Probability of higher unemployment rate:
– Probability of finding a job:
——————–
3. Banks are reporting a stabilization in mortgage demand.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Mortgage lending standards were unchanged except for jumbo loans.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
• Demand for consumer loans declined.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Banks are still tightening underwriting standards for credit cards.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
• Stabilization in lending standards for business loans suggests an improvement in manufacturing demand ahead.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
——————–
4. The IBD Economic Optimism Index improved sharply this month.
Back to Index
Canada
1. The loonie has fallen to its lowest level against the USD since 2020.
2. Improving consumer confidence points to higher retail sales.
Source: Capital Economics
Back to Index
The Eurozone
1. The euro reaching parity with the dollar? The options market estimates a roughly 9% probability of this outcome in three months and 14% in six months.
Source: @markets Read full article
——————–
2. French bond spreads are grinding higher again.
3. European shares are under pressure.
4. The euro-area Beveridge curve indicates a less tight labor market in Q2.
Source: Capital Economics
5. Next, we have some updates on Germany.
• The ZEW economic sentiment report surprised to the downside.
Source: Euronews Read full article
• Germany’s services inflation has been rising.
• Will the upcoming elections reduce economic uncertainty?
Source: Gavekal Research
• Here are the latest polls.
Source: Gavekal Research
Back to Index
Japan
1. The yen continues to weaken, with USD/JPY now trading above 155.
Source: @markets Read full article
——————–
2. The 5-year JGB yield reached its highest level since 2009.
3. Machine tool orders in October once again exceeded 2023 levels.
4. Japan continues to grapple with increasingly challenging demographic trends.
Source: @JKempEnergy
Back to Index
Asia-Pacific
1. South Korea’s stocks are tumbling.
2. Growth in Australia’s labor costs eased slightly in Q3.
• Australia’s 3-year yield hit its highest level in a year.
Back to Index
China
1. The Hang Seng Index dropped sharply on Wednesday, now testing support at the May peak.
Source: @markets Read full article
——————–
2. How could Beijing potentially respond to Trump’s tariffs?
Source: @economics Read full article
3. Capital withdrawal from China accelerates, marking a sharp decline in 2024.
Source: @markets Read full article
4. Account receivables as a share of liquid assets continue to climb.
Source: Alpine Macro
5. Stimulus measures boosted property sales in China’s tier-one cities (2 charts).
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Back to Index
India
1. The inflaation report surprised to the upside, with the CPI growth reaching a 14-month high.
Source: @economics Read full article
• Here are the contributions.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
——————–
2. Industrial production was back above 2023 levels in September.
3. The rupee continues to weaken.
4. The stock market is in correction territory.
Back to Index
Emerging Markets
1. EM currencies are under pressure.
Here is the Colombian peso.
——————–
2. Growth in Brazil’s retail sales slowed in September.
3. Argentina’s inflation continues to moderate.
4. Unlike China, Mexico’s heavy reliance on the US market could make it more vulnerable in a trade conflict.
Source: Alpine Macro
5. South Africa’s factory output is holding below pre-COVID levels.
• The unemployment rate eased last quarter.
Back to Index
Commodities
1. Copper futures continue to move lower.
2. The recent surge in palladium prices has been reversed.
3. Gold speculative net-long positions are declining from elevated levels as price momentum slows.
Source: Aazan Habib, Paradigm Capital
4. Cocoa futures are surging again.
5. US wheat futures fell below $5.50 per bushel.
Source: MarketScreener Read full article
——————–
6. The rally in lumber continues.
Back to Index
Energy
1. OPEC continues to cut its forecasts for crude oil demand.
Source: @markets Read full article
2. Here is a look at the EU’s natural gas imports over time.
Source: @DanielKral1, @OxfordEconomics
Back to Index
Equities
1. The Russell 2000 index failed to break through its 2021 high.
2. Equity market valuations in the US and India have diverged from global peers in recent years, albeit still below historical extremes.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
• The S&P 500 valuation remains a concern. Below is the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio.
Source: multpl
——————–
3. How sensitive are corporate earnings to changes in the tax rate?
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
4. Investors are concerned about rising bond yields.
Source: BofA Global Research
5. Retail investors jumped into the options market last week.
Source: @markets Read full article
6. Here is the Sentix US equity sentiment indicator.
Source: @sentixsurvey
7. Year-to-date share repurchase announcements hit a record high.
Source: Goldman Sachs
8. The S&P 500 price gains have diverged from the earnings revision breadth.
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
9. South Korean retail investors hold $100 billion worth of US stocks.
Source: @markets Read full article
Back to Index
Credit
1. The amount of outstanding US leveraged loans due by the end of 2025 declined partly due to refinancings.
Source: PitchBook
2. Investors now expect HY bonds to outperform IG debt.
Source: BofA Global Research
3. Here is a look at IG bond issuance by year.
Source: Goldman Sachs
4. This scatterplot shows the correlation of various credit markets to Treasuries and the S&P 500.
Back to Index
Global Developments
More gains ahead for the US dollar?
Source: @markets Read full article
——————–
Food for Thought
1. Holiday shoppers’ responses to high prices during this season:
Source: @CivicScience Read full article
2. Basic pay distribution across US military ranks and years of service:
Source: Wells Fargo Securities
3. States with the highest rate of high school tobacco usage:
Source: Yocan Vaporizer
4. Shifts in vote margins across battleground states from 2016 to 2024:
Source: @axios Read full article
5. Kyoto’s peak cherry blossom has been occurring progressively earlier.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
6. US motorcycle sales:
Source: @business Read full article
——————–
Back to Index