The Daily Shot: 21-Nov-24
• Cryptocurrency
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Credit
• Emerging Markets
• India
• China
• Asia-Pacific
• Europe
• The Eurozone
• The United Kingdom
• The United States
• Food for Thought
Cryptocurrency
1. Bitcoin is approaching $100k, boosted by massive volumes in the newly launched bitcoin ETF options.
Source: @markets Read full article
• The market cap is nearing $2 trillion.
Source: @DavidInglesTV
• By the way, bitcoin has set a record high only 16 times this year.
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2. Bitcoin ETFs’ daily volume exceeded $50 billion on Wednesday.
Source: @EricBalchunas
3. Could bitcoin hit $120k by the end of the year? The options market is pricing in a 16.5% probability of such an outcome.
4. The CME bitcoin futures open interest hit a record high amid increased institutional participation.
5. MSTU, a leveraged bitcoin ETF, is up over 900% since its launch in late September. This is not going to end well.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
6. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is deep in “greed” territory.
Source: Alternative.me
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Commodities
1. Gold is back at its 50-day moving average amid geopolitical risks.
2. Coffee prices are at the highest level in almost a decade.
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Energy
1. Crude oil is higher this morning as Russia fires an ICBM.
Source: @bpolitics Read full article
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2. US crude oil inventories edged higher last week, while gasoline stockpiles recovered some of the election-week decline.
Here are the inventory levels.
• Gasoline demand has reversed the gains made during election week.
• Refinery runs eased.
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3. US natural gas futures are higher as forecasts point to colder weather ahead.
Source: NOAA
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4. China is smuggling more Iranian and Venezuelan crude.
Source: @JavierBlas, @Opinion Read full article
5. The US faces supply risks for critical energy-related materials through 2025.
Source: Gavekal Research
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Equities
1. Nvidia delivered another quarter of blockbuster earnings, …
Source: Reuters Read full article
… but a slower revenue growth forecast tempered investor enthusiasm amid high expectations.
Source: @technology Read full article
US stock futures are lower on Nvidia results and rising geopolitical risks.
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2. The VIX 3-month call skew continues to rise, reflecting concerns over the Ukraine-Russia escalation.
Source: @TheTerminal, {h/t} Chris Murphy, Susquehanna International Group
Below is the VIX options-implied distribution three months out.
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3. Speculative shares continue to outperform.
4. Mutual funds have struggled to maintain full exposure to the Magnificent 7 stocks due to their increasing concentration within the index, …
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
… leading to weaker performance.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
• This chart highlights mutual funds’ sector allocations compared to their 10-year historical averages.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @dailychartbook
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5. Corporate earnings growth continues to outpace GDP growth.
Source: @johnauthers, @opinion Read full article
6. How did the 2017 tax cut impact various sectors’ forward earnings projections?
Source: Alpine Macro
7. Will we see a rotation out of tech into other sectors?
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
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Credit
1. US non-owner commercial real estate loan modifications and distress are mounting. (2 charts)
Source: Quill Intelligence
Source: Quill Intelligence
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2. Banks continue to report weak demand for commercial real estate loans, though there has been a notable improvement in recent quarters.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Fewer lenders are tightening standards for commercial real estate loans.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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Emerging Markets
1. Let’s begin with South Africa.
• Inflation continues to ease.
Source: Reuters Read full article
• Bond yields are lower amid rate-cut expectations.
• This chart shows past rate-cut cycles.
Source: Codera Analytics
• Business confidence is improving.
• Retail sales declined in September.
• Here is a look at South Africa’s labor market trends by age.
Source: Codera Analytics
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2. Argentina’s exports are now 30% above last year’s levels.
• The gap between the official and the unofficial peso exchange rates has been narrowing.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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3. This chart illustrates GDP per capita growth by country since the start of this century.
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
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India
1. Indian stocks are moving deeper into correction territory, …
… with the latest selloff exacerbated by the Adani scandal.
Source: CNBC Read full article
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2. The rupee continues to hit record lows against the US dollar.
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China
1. The renminbi keeps weakening.
2. China’s increasing usage of EVs and hybrids is weighing on gasoline demand.
Source: @EIAgov
3. Overall, high-tech exports as a share of GDP have weakened but remain firm with EM trading partners.
Source: BCA Research
4. The number of “economic” protests remains elevated.
Source: @bpolitics Read full article
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Asia-Pacific
1. JGB yields keep climbing.
2. South Korea’s exports rose above last year’s levels this month, …
… driven by “chips and ships,”
Source: @economics Read full article
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3. Taiwan’s export orders held up better than expected last month.
Source: Reuters Read full article
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4. Oxford Economics does not expect an RBA rate cut until next August.
Source: Oxford Economics
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Europe
1. The Swiss franc continues to strengthen amid rising geopolitical risks.
2. Here is a look at enterprise birth and death rates across EU countries.
Source: Eurostat Read full article
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The Eurozone
1. French business confidence continues to deteriorate, surprising to the downside this month.
• Foreign investors have been delaying projects in France.
Source: @economics Read full article
• French bond spreads widened again this week.
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2. Corporate earnings in Spain, Italy, and Greece have outpaced other European markets.
Source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research; @patrick_saner
3. Euro-area construction output has been moving lower.
4. Negotiated wage growth in the Eurozone has surged.
Source: @economics Read full article
• The market scaled back ECB rate cut expectations this week (2 charts)
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The United Kingdom
1. Home price appreciation has been strengthening.
2. This chart shows UK real earnings for young workers relative to pre-GFC levels.
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
3. Here is a look at how Britons view the UK’s allies and adversaries.
Source: YouGov Read full article
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The United States
1. Mortgage applications for home purchases have fallen slightly below last year’s levels.
Here is the rate lock count.
Source: AEI Housing Center
• Refi activity appears to have stabilized.
• Property listings remain well above 2023 levels.
Source: AEI Housing Center
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2. More upside ahead for the US dollar?
3. Here is a look at US imports from China.
Source: Reuters Read full article
• The 2018 expansion of import tariffs focused on capital and intermediate goods to minimize the impact on consumer prices.
Source: Alpine Macro
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4. Below is an analysis from Oxford Economics showing the impact of a politicized Federal Reserve on US GDP growth and inflation trends.
Source: Oxford Economics
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Food for Thought
1. Financial services bonuses:
Source: @axios Read full article
2. US federal government spending by category:
Source: @bpolitics Read full article
3. Consumer willingness to travel farther for specialty grocery stores:
Source: Placer.ai
4. Global research funding trends:
Source: Nature Read full article
5. Largest greenhouse gas emitters:
Source: @climate Read full article
6. Bluesky active users:
Source: TechCrunch Read full article
7. NFL’s top fumbling teams of 2024, ranked by losses:
Source: JeffBet
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