The Daily Shot: 22-Nov-24
• The United States
• The United Kingdom
• The Eurozone
• Europe
• Japan
• Asia-Pacific
• China
• India
• Emerging Markets
• Cryptocurrency
• Energy
• Equities
• Credit
• Global Developments
• Food for Thought
The United States
1. Last week’s initial jobless claims reached multi-year lows for this time of year, …
… down almost 12% from 2023.
Continuing claims eased relative to levels seen in recent years.
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2. The Conference Board’s leading indicator declined again.
This index has not risen for 32 consecutive months.
The Conference Board US Leading Index has performed poorly as a predictor of economic growth, weighed down by weak manufacturing and consumer surveys, along with the inverted yield curve – factors that have proven unreliable as leading indicators in the post-COVID era. Here are the contributions to the index over time.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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3. Existing home sales unexpectedly rose above last year’s levels in October.
• Inventories have been moving higher.
• The median sale price has remained well above 2023 levels.
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4. The Philly Fed’s manufacturing index dipped back into contraction territory, …
… but forward-looking indicators have strengthened markedly.
– New orders:
– Expected employment:
• Factories are expecting higher costs.
• Employee hours jumped this month.
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5. The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index indicated a slower pace of contraction this month.
• Manufacturers expect demand to pick up.
• There are signs that the strength of the US dollar is weighing on export demand (2 charts).
• CapEx expectations improved.
• Input price inflation slowed.
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The United Kingdom
1. Retail sales declined more than expected last month.
Source: Reuters Read full article
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2. The slump in industrial orders eased somewhat this month.
Manufacturers’ mood improved.
Source: Reuters Read full article
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3. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly increased this month.
Source: Reuters Read full article
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4. Government borrowing in October topped economists’ forecasts.
Borrowing has been diverging from the government’s projections.
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
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The Eurozone
1. Euro-area business activity contracted this month, surprising to the downside. We will have more on the PMI report next week.
2. Consumer confidence unexpectedly declined.
Here is the Dutch consumer sentiment indicator.
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3. Germany avoided a recession last quarter.
Source: ING Read full article
• Consumer spending growth was slower than initially estimated.
• However, business investment declined less than expected.
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Europe
1. Sweden’s industrial capacity utilization has been deteriorating.
• Economists expect another Riksbank rate cut this year.
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2. Norway’s GDP growth topped expectations.
Source: @economics Read full article
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3. Poland’s consumer confidence is rolling over.
4. EU vehicle sales climbed above last year’s level in October.
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Japan
1. Inflation eased last month.
The core CPI measures were mixed, …
… due to gains in food items that exclude fresh food.
Source: Reuters Read full article
• Economists have been boosting their estimates for next year’s inflation rate.
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2. The market increasingly sees another rate hike in December.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
• JGB yields continue to rise.
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3. Manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory this month, but services showed modest growth.
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Asia-Pacific
1. Singapore’s GDP growth topped expectations.
2. Australia’s manufacturing slump eased this month, but services activity entered contraction territory.
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China
1. The Hang Seng Index is testing initial support, although slowing momentum suggests a retest of the 200-day moving average is likely.
2. Hong Kong’s inflation declined sharply in October.
3. Here is a look at bank lending growth in the real estate and industrial sectors.
Source: Gavekal Research
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India
1. S&P lowered its rating outlook for three Adani units.
Source: Reuters Read full article
• Shares of various Adani companies remain under pressure.
• Adani bond yields surged.
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2. India’s business activity growth remains remarkably strong.
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Emerging Markets
1. South Africa’s central bank cut its benchmark rate as inflation slows.
2. Argentina’s consumer confidence is rebounding.
3. Mexico’s retail sales surprised to the downside.
4. EM-focused debt funds are seeing outflows.
Source: BofA Global Research
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Cryptocurrency
1. Bitcoin is closing in on $100k.
2. Bitcoin ETF assets hit $100 billion.
Source: @markets Read full article
3. Retail investors have been loading up on MicroStrategy shares as a proxy for bitcoin.
Source: Vanda Research
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Energy
1. Natural gas broke above its 200-day moving average amid colder weather in the US.
• Natural gas held long-term support in what appears to be a double-bottom pattern.
Source: @TaviCosta
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2. BofA’s private clients have been dumping energy shares.
Source: BofA Global Research
3. European natural gas storage levels are declining due to a cold spell across the continent.
Source: @DanielKral1, @OxfordEconomics
Source: EuroNews Read full article
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Equities
1. US equity fund inflows have hit extreme levels this year.
Source: BofA Global Research
• Financials are seeing strong demand, …
Source: BofA Global Research
… while investors are exiting healthcare funds.
Source: BofA Global Research
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2. Berkshire’s record cash holdings may give investors pause, …
Source: @nirkaissar, @opinion Read full article
… amid lofty valuations.
Source: BofA Global Research
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3. Leveraged funds’ assets have been surging.
Source: SentimenTrader
• Retail investors have slowed their purchases of leveraged index ETFs …
Source: Vanda Research
… but have increased their buying of leveraged single-stock ETFs.
Source: Vanda Research
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4. The AAII bull-bear spread (retail investor sentiment) eased this week.
5. Hedge funds are running increasingly concentrated portfolios, …
Source: Goldman Sachs; @dailychartbook
… but they have reduced their exposure to the Magnificent 7 stocks.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @dailychartbook
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6. So far, US equities have outperformed other assets since the election.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
7. Will Google be forced to divest Chrome? Betting markets currently assign a 51% probability to this outcome.
Source: Kalshi
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Credit
1. IG bond inflows have been extreme this year.
Source: BofA Global Research
• Leveraged loan funds remain in demand.
Source: BofA Global Research
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2. There has been a continued decline in fundraising for special situations/distressed debt, which peaked in 2020.
Source: PitchBook
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Global Developments
1. The dollar rally appears stretched.
Source: MRB Partners
• Will the US dollar continue to strengthen against other advanced economy currencies next year?
Source: Wells Fargo Securities
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2. This chart shows the disparity in total and working-age population growth over the next quarter century, particularly between DM and EM nations.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
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Food for Thought
1. US duties collected as a percentage of total imports:
Source: BofA Global Research
2. US share of the G7 GDP:
Source: Semafor
3. Global water conflicts over time:
Source: CSIS Read full article
4. The impact of foreign police arrival on gang-related deaths in Haiti:
Source: The Economist Read full article
5. Annual deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon:
Source: @chartrdaily
6. Political polarization in the US compared to other Western democracies:
Source: @business Read full article
7. The two largest cities on each continent:
Source: Visual Capitalist Read full article
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Have a great weekend!
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