The Daily Shot: 26-Nov-24
• The United States
• Canada
• The Eurozone
• Europe
• Japan
• China
• Emerging Markets
• Cryptocurrency
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Rates
• Food for Thought
The United States
1. Trump’s pledge to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico pushed the dollar higher once again.
Source: Reuters Read full article
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2. The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index held in contraction territory this month, …
… but manufacturers’ outlook has been improving.
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3. Here is a look at economists’ median forecasts for US GDP growth through the first quarter of 2026 (quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year).
• Deutsche Bank’s growth estimate is well above consensus.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
• Could US Q3 GDP growth face a downward revision?”
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
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4. The decline in the Indeed wage growth tracker has slowed.
Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo
5. The federal budget deficit is forecast to widen over the next couple of years.
Source: Wells Fargo Securities
6. Here is the Bloomberg story count for “animal spirits.”
• This chart shows Goldman’s Social Media Sentiment Index.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
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Canada
1. Trump’s latest tariff pledge sent the loonie tumbling.
• Equity futures dropped.
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2. Canadian consumer confidence dipped following the US elections.
3. Retail sales have been robust.
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The Eurozone
1. Germany’s Ifo Business Expectations index (2nd panel) held steady this month.
The trade-related Ifo subindex appears to have bottomed (lower-left).
Source: ifo Institute
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2. China’s slowdown has been a drag on the euro.
Source: Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog
3. The S&P 500’s outperformance relative to the Stoxx 500 is at the upper limit of its long-term channel. Is a pullback imminent?
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
4. Euro-area private domestic demand has slowed.
Source: ECB
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Europe
1. Central European economic indicators point to a rebound.
• Czech business confidence:
• Poland’s industrial output (year-over-year):
Source: ING Read full article
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2. The EU’s goods exports to the US have been trending higher.
Source: @DanielKral1, @OxfordEconomics
3. This chart highlights EU labor market slack, broken down by country and component.
Source: Eurostat Read full article
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Japan
1. Last month’s services PPI surprised to the upside.
2. Japan managed to expand its labor force despite a large decline in its working-age population.This was achieved through a rise in female labor force participation and flexible working conditions.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
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China
1. The renminbi continues to weaken vs. the dollar in anticipation of higher tariffs.
2. China’s exports are on track to hit a record high this year.
Source: @economics Read full article
3. According to Deutsche Bank, China’s GDP growth will remain well below the pre-COVID trend.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
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Emerging Markets
1. The Mexican peso tumbled vs. the dollar after Trump’s pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico.
2. Brazil’s consumer confidence hit a multi-year high.
3. Economists are boosting their projections for Argentina’s economic growth next year.
4. Turkey’s manufacturing confidence continues to rebound.
5. Hungary’s economic sentiment (combined consumer and business confidence) is rolling over.
6. Thailand’s exports surged last month, topping expectations.
Source: Reuters Read full article
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7. Many EM economies are increasingly dependent on US demand.
Source: TS Lombard
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Cryptocurrency
1. Crypto funds saw the largest weekly inflows on record.
Source: CoinShares
• Bitcoin products accounted for most inflows, while Solana-focused funds outpaced Ethereum funds last week.
Source: CoinShares
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2. SEC-targeted tokens have been surging as Gensler’s announced that he will resign before the inauguration.
Source: @crypto Read full article
3. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “extreme greed” territory, although it declined over the past few days.
Source: Alternative.me
4. Bitcoin’s market-cap relative to the total crypto market-cap (dominance ratio) declined as altcoins gained relative strength
5. Half of the top-50 altcoins have outperformed BTC over the past 90 days with Stellar (XLM) in the lead.
Source: Blockchain Center
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Commodities
1. Gold had a rough start of the week.
2. The silver market remains in deficit.
Source: @markets Read full article
3. US wheat futures once again failed to stage a rebound.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
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4. Arabica coffee futures reached their highest level since 1997.
Source: @markets Read full article
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5. US orange juice futures continue to hit new highs.
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Energy
1. US retail gasoline prices keep drifting lower.
2. Heavy sour Canadian crude would be difficult to replace if the Trump administration imposes significant tariffs on Canadian imports. Gasoline prices are likely to rise.
Source: @EIAgov Read full article
3. Kazakhstan’s increasing crude production next year could create a problem for OPEC+.
Source: @JavierBlas, @opinion Read full article
3. Energy shares (XLE) have diverged sharply from crude oil prices (USO).
4. The US natural gas futures curve has shifted higher.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
• The European natural gas curve is pricing in a colder winter.
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Equities
1. The S&P 500 is having the best year since 1998.
2. Market breadth has improved sharply in recent days. Here is the percentage of S&P 500 members trading above their 20-day moving average.
• The S&P 500 equal-weight index and midcaps surged in recent days.
• The Russell 2000 index hit the highest level since 2021.
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3. US mid-cap stocks are improving relative to large-caps.
Source: Aazan Habib, Paradigm Capital
4. Deutsche Bank expects the S&P 500 to reach 7,000 by the end of next year.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
The options market assigns a 16% probability to such an outcome
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5. Next, we have some sector updates.
• Homebuilder shares surged on Monday as Treasury yields declined.
• Financials continue to rally, …
… amid relatively strong earnings revisions.
Source: Morgan Stanley Research; @WallStJesus
– Regional banks now trade above the pre-SVB levels.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
– Financials’ positioning is at the highest level since 2021.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
• XLK is nearing the end of its ascending triangle.
h/t @HostileCharts
• Here is an overview of Deutsche Bank’s earnings growth forecast by sector.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
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6. Next, we have some updates on the volatility markets.
• The put-call ratio is falling.
• The 1-Day VIX indicator declined sharply in recent days.
• The market increasingly expects correlations to decline over the next 12 months.
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Rates
1. The 10-year Treasury yield held short-term resistance at 4.5%.
• Downside could be limited since the 10-year Treasury yield broke above a long-term downtrend.
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2. The 10-year Treasury note is not yet oversold based on longer-term measures.
Source: MRB Partners
3. So far, the 10-year Treasury yield has followed its recent election path.
Source: MRB Partners
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Food for Thought
1. Global trends in coal-fired power capacity:
Source: The Economist Read full article
2. Increasing stability in US county-level voting patterns (current year GOP % vs. previous year):
Source: @thomasjwood
3. Potential judicial appointments in US appellate courts:
Source: @BW Read full article
4. Global diabetes care gap:
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
5. How consumers are using generative AI:
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence Read full article
6. Estimated decomposition times for common materials:
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