The Daily Shot: 24-Dec-24
• The United States
• Canada
• The United Kingdom
• The Eurozone
• Asia-Pacific
• China
• India
• Emerging Markets
• Cryptocurrency
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Credit
• Rates
• Global Developments
• Food for Thought
As a reminder, The Daily Shot will not be published on December 25th, 26th, and 27th. Abbreviated issues will be available on the 30th and 31st.
The United States
1. The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment measure unexpectedly fell in November, with the expectations index recording its largest drop since the COVID shock.
Source: @economics Read full article
• The labor differential improved once more, signaling growing confidence in the jobs market.
• The income differential dropped sharply, reflecting households’ growing concerns about income growth.
• Home purchase expectations saw a pullback from recent highs.
——————–
2. Durable goods orders fell more than anticipated in November, driven by a decline in aircraft production.
• However, capital goods orders registered an increase.
Real capital goods orders appear to have bottomed.
3. Big tech capital expenditures are projected to continue rising over the next couple of years.
Source: Alpine Macro
——————–
4. New home sales were above 2023 levels in November.
Here are the seasonally adjusted trends.
– by region:
– by stage of construction:
– The number of presold new single-family homes dropped to a multi-year low.
• New home inventories remain elevated.
——————–
5. Treasury yields continue to climb.
6. Gains in real income and household wealth have supported consumption growth. (2 charts)
Source: MRB Partners
Source: MRB Partners
——————–
7. Next, we show the evolution of economic forecasts for 2025 over time.
• Consumer spending:
• Inflation:
• Industrial production growth:
• Wage growth:
• Exports (downgrade due to expected tariff retaliations):
• Government spending:
Back to Index
Canada
1. Consumer confidence continues to deteriorate.
2. Canada’s GDP posted strong growth in October, but estimates indicate a contraction in November.
Source: Reuters Read full article
——————–
3. Here is a look at the BoC policy rate projection from Oxford Economics.
Source: Oxford Economics
Back to Index
The United Kingdom
1. The 30-year gilt yield hit its highest level in over two decades.
2. Here are the drivers of London’s population change.
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
Back to Index
The Eurozone
1. Economists now see Germany’s GDP growing by only 0.5% in 2025, …
… amid soft export growth.
Economists see Germany’s government budget remaining in deficit next year and in 2026.
——————–
2. At the Eurozone level, the 2025 economic growth projections continue to diverge from that of the US.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
3. Here is a look at primary budget trends by country.
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
Back to Index
Asia-Pacific
1. South Korea’s consumer confidence tumbled this month amid rising political uncertainty.
Source: @economics Read full article
• The won continues to sink against the US dollar.
——————–
2. Taiwan’s industrial production held up well in November, with growth topping expectations.
3. Singapore’s inflation continues to moderate.
Back to Index
China
1. Some banks boosted mortgage rates in November.
Source: @markets Read full article
2. China’s share of global automobile production is nearing 40%.
Source: BofA Global Research
3. Here is a look at China’s lithium-ion battery exports to the US.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
Back to Index
India
1. The rupee remains under pressure.
Source: Reuters Read full article
——————–
2. Indian companies are increasingly turning to stock markets to raise funds.
Source: @markets Read full article
3. Credit growth has been slowing.
Source: Capital Economics
Back to Index
Emerging Markets
1. The Brazilian real is weakening again, prompting another intervention by the central bank.
Source: @economics Read full article
——————–
2. Mexico’s economic activity declined in October.
• Exports eased last month but held at a multi-year high.
• Mexico’s bond yields keep climbing.
——————–
3. Uruguay’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates on Monday.
• This chart illustrates the divergence in policy rates across LatAm.
Source: @economics Read full article
Back to Index
Cryptocurrency
1. DeFi tokens outperformed crypto peers over the past week as bitcoin underperformed.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
2. This chart shows improvement in the Bloomberg DeFi index in terms of relative strength and momentum vs. BTC over the past six weeks. Ethereum is also improving, while XLM’s relative momentum has waned.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
3. Crypto fund inflows have slowed over the past week.
Source: CoinShares Read full article
Despite seeing intra-week outflows, bitcoin funds accounted for the majority of net inflows last week. Investors exited multi-asset funds, possibly taking a more selective approach with specific altcoin funds.
Source: CoinShares Read full article
——————–
4. Hedge funds have been boosting their bets against ether.
5. The CFTC raked in more than $17 billion in crypto fines and restitutions this year.
Source: @markets Read full article
Back to Index
Commodities
1. Olive oil prices have been tumbling in recent months.
2. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is holding support. Will a pickup in global inflation surprises (blue line) provide a boost to commodity prices?
Source: Damanick Dantes; Bloomberg
Back to Index
Energy
1. Uranium prices continue to sink.
2. European natural gas storage remains inside the 5-year average despite recent cold weather and low wind conditions.
Source: @DanielKral1
• Here is a look at US exports of crude oil and refined products to the EU.
Source: @JavierBlas Read full article
Back to Index
Equities
1. Small-cap underperformance has intensified in recent weeks.
• The Russell 2000’s post-election performance has deviated significantly from its trajectory following the 2016 election.
• Unlike in large caps, the Russell 2000 Equal Weight Index has outperformed the cap-weighted index over the past six months.
——————–
2. Consumer goods companies exposed to tariff risks have been underperforming.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
3. The top ten stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 40% of the index’s market cap, reflecting worsening concentration.
Source: @KevRGordon
4. Next, we have some data on the Magnificent 7 stocks from Alpine Macro.
• Relative weights:
Source: Alpine Macro
• Contribution to S&P 500 returns:
Source: Alpine Macro
• Earnings expectations vs. the rest of the S&P 500:
Source: Alpine Macro
• Cash levels:
Source: Alpine Macro
——————–
5. Options activity hit a record high this year.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
6. Global equity sentiment appears stretched.
Source: BofA Global Research
7. Next, we have some sector updates from MRB Partners.
• The US healthcare sector appears deeply oversold.
Source: MRB Partners
• Forward earnings have peaked for US semiconductor stocks.
Source: MRB Partners
• The S&P 500 Utilities sector dividend yield compares less favorably to the 10-year Treasury yield and the dividend yield of the broader market.
Source: MRB Partners
Back to Index
Credit
1. Cat bonds continue to outperform.
Source: @climate Read full article
2. MBS spreads have tightened but remain well above IG corporate spreads.
Source: Chris Murphy, Susquehanna International Group
2. US high-yield bond volume was robust this year, aided by tightening credit spreads.
Source: PitchBook
3. US private credit market activity increased at a slower pace than the syndicated loan market this year. Direct lenders faced dwindling credit spreads and renewed competition from banks, while private credit providers issued more loans to PE-backed firms, according to PitchBook.
Source: PitchBook
Back to Index
Rates
1. The Treasury curve continues to steepen.
——————–
2. It’s highly unusual for Treasury yields to increase this much after the Fed has begun an easing cycle.
Source: @markets Read full article
Back to Index
Global Developments
1. More countries are reporting growing manufacturing activity.
Source: BofA Global Research
2. The global trade cycle is improving.
Source: MRB Partners
——————–
Food for Thought
1. Novo Nordisk’s sales by division:
Source: @chartrdaily
• Google search activity for weight-loss treatments:
Source: @chartrdaily
• The number of US adults taking GLP-1s for weight management:
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
——————–
2. Top automakers by sales:
Source: Nikkei Asia Read full article
3. Starbucks’ sales in China:
Source: @chartrdaily
4. China’s dominance in global coal supply:
Source: @chartrdaily
5. Obamacare applications by state for 2025:
Source: Reuters Read full article
6. Hanukkah traditions:
Source: Reader’s Digest Read full article
7. Populations of US places with festive names:
Source: US Census Bureau
8. Top all-time favorite Christmas films:
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
——————–
Happy holidays!
Back to Index