California wildfires boost jobless claims

The Daily Shot: 24-Jan-25
The United States
Canada
The United Kingdom
The Eurozone
Europe
Japan
Asia-Pacific
China
Emerging Markers
Cryptocurrency
Commodities
Energy
Equities
Credit
Rates
Global Developments
Food for Thought



 

The United States

1. Jobless claims remain above 2024 levels, boosted by a sharp rise in California following recent wildfires.

Initial claims:

Continuing claims:

Year-over-year % changes:

California initial jobless claims:

Source: MarketWatch   Read full article  

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2. The Kansas City Fed’s regional manufacturing index stayed in contraction territory this month, …

… though forward-looking indicators showed improvement.

Outlook:

Expected employee workweek:

CapEx plans:

By the way, regional Fed surveys collectively suggest a rebound in CapEx at the national level.

Source: @RenMacLLC  

Manufacturers expect faster cost increases ahead.

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3. Next, we have some updates on the housing market.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate index dipped below 7%.

Source: @business   Read full article  

Homes are taking longer to sell.

Source: Redfin  

The housing market is overvalued relative to rents.

Source: BofA Global Research  

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4. All Tenant Repeat Rent (ATRR) data suggests ongoing rental disinflation in the CPI.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

5. The percentage of Americans making only minimum payments on their credit cards continues to increase.

Source: Bloomberg Law   Read full article  

6. The US dollar is rolling over.

Source: Reuters   Read full article  


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Canada

1. Estimates show that retail sales jumped in December (on a seasonally adjusted basis).

Source: @economics   Read full article  

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2. Deutsche Bank expects USD/CAD to challenge its all-time high of 1.61 if the US declares a 25% tariff on Canada.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  


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The United Kingdom

1. The slump in UK industrial orders persisted into 2025.

The quarterly CBI outlook index has been tumbling.

Source: This is Money   Read full article  

More manufacturers have been boosting prices.

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2. Consumer confidence slumped this month.

Source: @financialtimes   Read full article  

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3. The UK stock market has been surging.


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The Eurozone

1. Consumer confidence in the Netherlands and Belgium has been deteriorating, …

… while the Eurozone-level confidence index edged higher this month.

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2. French manufacturing sentiment continues to trend lower.

3. Italy’s budget balance has been improving, whereas France’s fiscal situation continues to worsen.

Source: @DanielKral1, @OxfordEconomics  

Greece is now running a budget surplus.

Source: @DanielKral1, @OxfordEconomics  

Here is a comparison of government debt-to-GDP ratios across euro-area economies relative to their pre-COVID levels.

Source: @DanielKral1, @OxfordEconomics  

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4. The ECB has taken a modestly dovish stance.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  


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Europe

1. Poland’s retail sales surprised to the downside.

2. This chart shows home price appreciation in the EU.

Source: Eurostat   Read full article  

3. Here is a look at spending on mental health.

Source: @financialtimes   Read full article  


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Japan

1. As anticipated, the BoJ raised its benchmark rate today, …

Source: Reuters   Read full article  

… driven by elevated inflation, …

… inflation expectations, …

… household income, and wage growth.

Source: Capital Economics  

The central bank boosted its inflation forecast.

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2. JGB yields climbed further, …

… amid worsening liquidity.

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3. The yen surged.

But USD/JPY held support at the 50-day moving average.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

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4. Japan’s bank shares have been outperforming as rates climb.

5. Manufacturing activity moved deeper into contraction territory this month.


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Asia-Pacific

1. Australian factory activity has stabilized, but service-sector growth is stalling.

2. Taiwan’s industrial production growth topped expectations.


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China

1. The renminbi is rebounding vs. the dollar.

Source: @DavidInglesTV   Read full article  

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2. Economists are increasingly anticipating persistent disinflationary pressures in China this year.

3. Housing conditions have stabilized.

Source: MRB Partners  


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Emerging Markers

1. Asian currencies are recovering, bolstered by the renminbi’s strength.

Malaysian ringgit:

Thai baht:

Here is the MSCI EM Currency Index.

Source: @DavidInglesTV   Read full article  

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2. Turkey’s central bank delivered another rate cut, with more to come.

Source: @economics   Read full article  

The lira devaluation continues.

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3. Ukraine’s central bank hiked rates amid rising inflation.


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Cryptocurrency

1. The US is looking into establishing a “digital asset stockpile.”

Source: CoinDesk   Read full article  

Bitcoin hit resistance near $109k.

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2. So far, cryptos have had a mixed week, with Solana outperforming and DeFi tokens underperforming.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

3. The SOL/BTC price ratio is testing long-term resistance.

4. The ETH/BTC price ratio remains in a downtrend.

5. Altcoin trading volumes have increased relative to BTC.

Source: @KaikoData  

6. The Trump meme coin eclipsed the volume of Dogecoin.

Source: @KaikoData  

Binance has dominated the share of liquidity for the Trump meme coin.

Source: @KaikoData  


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Commodities

1. US egg prices hit a record high.

Source: Food Business News   Read full article  

Source: Baltimore Sun   Read full article  

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2. Will copper retest the downtrend resistance?


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Energy

1. Brent crude dipped below its 200-day moving average.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

Source: BBC   Read full article  

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2. US crude oil inventories declined last week while refined product stockpiles were mixed.

Here are the inventory levels.

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3. European natural gas inventories have declined sharply (2 charts), …

Source: @JavierBlas, @opinion   Read full article  

… keeping prices elevated.

Source: @JavierBlas, @opinion   Read full article  


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Equities

1. The S&P 500 notched its first record high of the year.

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2. Retail investor sentiment improved sharply this week.

Here is JP Morgan’s retail buying sentiment indicator.

Source: JP Morgan Research; @WallStJesus  

CTAs are less upbeat on US stocks.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @Mayhem4Markets  

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3. Correlations among US stocks remain low.

Source: Barclays Research  

4. Share buyback activity has been strong.

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi  

Here is a breakdown of announced buybacks by sector.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

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5. Slowing tech earnings growth will pose a headwind for positioning in the sector.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

6. Healthcare stocks are rebounding.

7. Consumer staples ETFs have lost their advantage versus short-duration bond ETFs.

Source: @Todd_Sohn  

8. Investor sentiment toward dividend stocks is waning.

Source: BofA Global Research  

9. Here is an overview of the relative ownership of US equities by passive versus active mutual funds.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi  


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Credit

1. Demenad for leveraged loans remains robust.

Source: BofA Global Research  

2. Private credit typically outperforms the broadly syndicated leveraged loan market.

Source: Hamilton Lane  

3. The share of corporate debt traded electronically continues to rise.

Source: @markets   Read full article  


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Rates

1. Real GDP growth and inflation expectations suggest the 10-year Treasury yield should be above 5%.

Source: SOM Macro Strategies  

2. Will rising US debt levels send the Treasury term premium higher?

Source: Alpine Macro  


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Global Developments

1. DM central bank policy rates are mildly restrictive, ex-Japan.

Source: TS Lombard  

2. Inflation expectations among fund managers are at their highest since March 2022, with only a net 7% anticipating lower inflation in the next 12 months. Consequently, optimism for rate cuts has moderated.

Source: BofA Global Research  

3. Median global CPI has remained near 2% in recent months.

Source: BofA Global Research  

4. CTAs have been very bullish on the US dollar.

Source: Nomura Securities; @WallStJesus  

5. OECD goods consumption has deviated below trend.

Source: TS Lombard  


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Food for Thought

1. Wealth distribution of America’s top 20 billionaires:

Source: Visual Capitalist   Read full article  

2. Top S&P 500 companies by executive security spending:

Source: @WSJ   Read full article  

3. Changes in the number of US McDonald’s restaurants:

Source: @chartrdaily  

4. China’s Temu and AliExpress climb US marketplace rankings, disrupting the top 10 by 2024.

Source: ECDB   Read full article  

5. Disparities in pregnancy-associated homicides:

Source: The New York Times   Read full article  

6. GDP and Olympic medals:

Source: TS Lombard  

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Have a great weekend!


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