The Daily Shot: 24-Jan-25
• The United States
• Canada
• The United Kingdom
• The Eurozone
• Europe
• Japan
• Asia-Pacific
• China
• Emerging Markers
• Cryptocurrency
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Credit
• Rates
• Global Developments
• Food for Thought
The United States
1. Jobless claims remain above 2024 levels, boosted by a sharp rise in California following recent wildfires.
– Initial claims:
– Continuing claims:
– Year-over-year % changes:
– California initial jobless claims:
Source: MarketWatch Read full article
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2. The Kansas City Fed’s regional manufacturing index stayed in contraction territory this month, …
… though forward-looking indicators showed improvement.
– Outlook:
– Expected employee workweek:
– CapEx plans:
By the way, regional Fed surveys collectively suggest a rebound in CapEx at the national level.
Source: @RenMacLLC
• Manufacturers expect faster cost increases ahead.
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3. Next, we have some updates on the housing market.
• Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate index dipped below 7%.
Source: @business Read full article
• Homes are taking longer to sell.
Source: Redfin
• The housing market is overvalued relative to rents.
Source: BofA Global Research
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4. All Tenant Repeat Rent (ATRR) data suggests ongoing rental disinflation in the CPI.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
5. The percentage of Americans making only minimum payments on their credit cards continues to increase.
Source: Bloomberg Law Read full article
6. The US dollar is rolling over.
Source: Reuters Read full article
Canada
1. Estimates show that retail sales jumped in December (on a seasonally adjusted basis).
Source: @economics Read full article
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2. Deutsche Bank expects USD/CAD to challenge its all-time high of 1.61 if the US declares a 25% tariff on Canada.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
The United Kingdom
1. The slump in UK industrial orders persisted into 2025.
• The quarterly CBI outlook index has been tumbling.
Source: This is Money Read full article
• More manufacturers have been boosting prices.
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2. Consumer confidence slumped this month.
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
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3. The UK stock market has been surging.
The Eurozone
1. Consumer confidence in the Netherlands and Belgium has been deteriorating, …
… while the Eurozone-level confidence index edged higher this month.
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2. French manufacturing sentiment continues to trend lower.
3. Italy’s budget balance has been improving, whereas France’s fiscal situation continues to worsen.
Source: @DanielKral1, @OxfordEconomics
• Greece is now running a budget surplus.
Source: @DanielKral1, @OxfordEconomics
• Here is a comparison of government debt-to-GDP ratios across euro-area economies relative to their pre-COVID levels.
Source: @DanielKral1, @OxfordEconomics
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4. The ECB has taken a modestly dovish stance.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
Europe
1. Poland’s retail sales surprised to the downside.
2. This chart shows home price appreciation in the EU.
Source: Eurostat Read full article
3. Here is a look at spending on mental health.
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
Japan
1. As anticipated, the BoJ raised its benchmark rate today, …
Source: Reuters Read full article
… driven by elevated inflation, …
… inflation expectations, …
… household income, and wage growth.
Source: Capital Economics
• The central bank boosted its inflation forecast.
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2. JGB yields climbed further, …
… amid worsening liquidity.
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3. The yen surged.
But USD/JPY held support at the 50-day moving average.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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4. Japan’s bank shares have been outperforming as rates climb.
5. Manufacturing activity moved deeper into contraction territory this month.
Asia-Pacific
1. Australian factory activity has stabilized, but service-sector growth is stalling.
2. Taiwan’s industrial production growth topped expectations.
China
1. The renminbi is rebounding vs. the dollar.
Source: @DavidInglesTV Read full article
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2. Economists are increasingly anticipating persistent disinflationary pressures in China this year.
3. Housing conditions have stabilized.
Source: MRB Partners
Emerging Markers
1. Asian currencies are recovering, bolstered by the renminbi’s strength.
– Malaysian ringgit:
– Thai baht:
• Here is the MSCI EM Currency Index.
Source: @DavidInglesTV Read full article
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2. Turkey’s central bank delivered another rate cut, with more to come.
Source: @economics Read full article
The lira devaluation continues.
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3. Ukraine’s central bank hiked rates amid rising inflation.
Cryptocurrency
1. The US is looking into establishing a “digital asset stockpile.”
Source: CoinDesk Read full article
• Bitcoin hit resistance near $109k.
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2. So far, cryptos have had a mixed week, with Solana outperforming and DeFi tokens underperforming.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
3. The SOL/BTC price ratio is testing long-term resistance.
4. The ETH/BTC price ratio remains in a downtrend.
5. Altcoin trading volumes have increased relative to BTC.
Source: @KaikoData
6. The Trump meme coin eclipsed the volume of Dogecoin.
Source: @KaikoData
Binance has dominated the share of liquidity for the Trump meme coin.
Source: @KaikoData
Commodities
1. US egg prices hit a record high.
Source: Food Business News Read full article
Source: Baltimore Sun Read full article
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2. Will copper retest the downtrend resistance?
Energy
1. Brent crude dipped below its 200-day moving average.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: BBC Read full article
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2. US crude oil inventories declined last week while refined product stockpiles were mixed.
Here are the inventory levels.
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3. European natural gas inventories have declined sharply (2 charts), …
Source: @JavierBlas, @opinion Read full article
… keeping prices elevated.
Source: @JavierBlas, @opinion Read full article
Equities
1. The S&P 500 notched its first record high of the year.
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2. Retail investor sentiment improved sharply this week.
Here is JP Morgan’s retail buying sentiment indicator.
Source: JP Morgan Research; @WallStJesus
• CTAs are less upbeat on US stocks.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @Mayhem4Markets
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3. Correlations among US stocks remain low.
Source: Barclays Research
4. Share buyback activity has been strong.
Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi
Here is a breakdown of announced buybacks by sector.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
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5. Slowing tech earnings growth will pose a headwind for positioning in the sector.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
6. Healthcare stocks are rebounding.
7. Consumer staples ETFs have lost their advantage versus short-duration bond ETFs.
Source: @Todd_Sohn
8. Investor sentiment toward dividend stocks is waning.
Source: BofA Global Research
9. Here is an overview of the relative ownership of US equities by passive versus active mutual funds.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
Credit
1. Demenad for leveraged loans remains robust.
Source: BofA Global Research
2. Private credit typically outperforms the broadly syndicated leveraged loan market.
Source: Hamilton Lane
3. The share of corporate debt traded electronically continues to rise.
Source: @markets Read full article
Rates
1. Real GDP growth and inflation expectations suggest the 10-year Treasury yield should be above 5%.
Source: SOM Macro Strategies
2. Will rising US debt levels send the Treasury term premium higher?
Source: Alpine Macro
Global Developments
1. DM central bank policy rates are mildly restrictive, ex-Japan.
Source: TS Lombard
2. Inflation expectations among fund managers are at their highest since March 2022, with only a net 7% anticipating lower inflation in the next 12 months. Consequently, optimism for rate cuts has moderated.
Source: BofA Global Research
3. Median global CPI has remained near 2% in recent months.
Source: BofA Global Research
4. CTAs have been very bullish on the US dollar.
Source: Nomura Securities; @WallStJesus
5. OECD goods consumption has deviated below trend.
Source: TS Lombard
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Food for Thought
1. Wealth distribution of America’s top 20 billionaires:
Source: Visual Capitalist Read full article
2. Top S&P 500 companies by executive security spending:
Source: @WSJ Read full article
3. Changes in the number of US McDonald’s restaurants:
Source: @chartrdaily
4. China’s Temu and AliExpress climb US marketplace rankings, disrupting the top 10 by 2024.
Source: ECDB Read full article
5. Disparities in pregnancy-associated homicides:
Source: The New York Times Read full article
6. GDP and Olympic medals:
Source: TS Lombard
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Have a great weekend!