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Markets react to Israel’s attack on Iran

Builders increasingly focus on single-family rental units

Chair Powell tempers expectations for rate cuts

Robust retail sales intensify inflation concerns

US upside inflation surprise stands out among advanced economies

The US dollar continues to strengthen

The 2-year Treasury yield nears 5% after the hot CPI report

Small business sentiment deteriorates further

Households are growing more concerned about the possibility of job loss

US part-time employment has been surging

US trade deficit with Mexico hits a record high

The ISM Services PMI signals weaker economic growth

Job openings in retail lowest since the COVID shock

Market trims expected Fed rate cuts amid stronger manufacturing data

Consumer spending rebounded in February, boosted by services

Credit score migration boosted delinquency rates

Confidence dips among younger Americans

Builders focus on smaller homes

US households are increasingly tapping their IRA/401-k accounts

After a pullback, more US firms are boosting sales prices

FOMC raises post-2024 rate projections

Single-family and multifamily construction trends diverge

Job switching has become less lucrative

The market continues to reprice rate cut expectations

Persistent inflation may lead the FOMC to lift the dot plot

Work-from-home continues to impact consumer spending patterns

May Fed rate cut odds plunge on hot CPI report

Consumers are growing concerned about securing new employment

Fewer small businesses plan to hire workers or boost wages

Trends in initial and continuing jobless claims diverge

Voluntary resignations hint at slower wage growth ahead

ISM orders-inventories spread signals gains in service sector activity

WARN notices signal higher unemployment claims ahead

Fade the ISM manufacturing PMI weakness

The supercore PCE inflation does not scream “rate cuts”

Apartment construction has been slowing

Capital goods orders are now trailing behind shipments

Lower-tier homes see the largest price gains in January

Economists keep hiking their forecasts for US GDP growth

The market is coming to terms with 3 Fed rate cuts this year

The FOMC remains cautious on rate cuts

Philly Fed’s regional survey signals slack demand at service firms

US business activity accelerates in February

Consumer services wholesale prices jumped last month

Frigid weather depressed economic activity in January

Small business hiring continues to slow

Hot CPI report narrows the market-FOMC rate expectations gap

Inflation expectations could climb with gasoline prices

The market scales back Fed rate cut expectations for 2024

Skyrocketing interest costs will explode US fiscal deficit

Student debt drops $37 billion from 2022

Consumer credit delinquencies keep moving higher

January’s wage growth, work hours skewed by cold weather

Robust employment report sends yields surging

Robust gains in labor productivity send Treasury yields lower

Chair Powell pours cold water on a March rate cut

Job openings increase again, underscoring labor market’s resilience

Further upside in oil prices could lead to higher inflation expectations

US growth continues to surprise

Easier financial conditions may delay the Fed’s rate cuts

Households are more upbeat about their financial situation

Market-based probability of a March Fed rate cut continues to drop

Strong retail sales boosted Q4 growth estimates

Remote work is fueling the divergence in goods and services spending

Student loan payments are rapidly trending lower

The downside PPI surprise boosts bets on Fed rate cuts

Supercore CPI remains sticky

Is the market becoming complacent about inflation risks?

Softer oil prices have capped inflation expectations

Real credit card balances now exceed the pre-COVID peak

The jobs report did not show a loosening labor market

Jobless claims ended 2023 near multi-year lows

Fed officials are beginning to talk about tapering QT

More home sales are falling through

Excluding government transfers, real income growth is accelerating

Concerns persist about a potential resurgence in inflation

Firmer mortgage applications point to an uptick in home sales

Freight rates are stabilizing

The stock market is pricing a sharp rebound in US manufacturing activity

Excluding vehicles, US industrial output has been weakening over the past two years

The resilient US consumer

The Fed pivots

Smaller cities are pushing up rent inflation

More Americans with full-time jobs are moonlighting

Jobs report not as strong as the headline figure suggests

Consumer credit growth slows

Weak oil prices sink market-based inflation expectations

Labor market imbalances continue to ease

The GDP-GDI divergence has reached extreme levels

Too much enthusiasm?

Fade the headlines about surging unemployment claims

The Fed’s Beige Book signals slowing economic growth

Consumers are growing more cautious on the jobs market

Economists boost US 2024 GDP growth forecast again

Consumers remain concerned about inflation resurgence

Hospital services inflation is expected to accelerate

US financial conditions continue to ease

Residential construction is holding up well

The market is settling on four 25 bps Fed rate cuts next year

Small businesses increasingly report declining sales and earnings