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US financial conditions continue to ease

Residential construction is holding up well

The market is settling on four 25 bps Fed rate cuts next year

Small businesses increasingly report declining sales and earnings

The market now sees no possibility of further Fed rate hikes

Tighter credit conditions signal weakness in business investment

Inflation expectations jump despite lower gasoline prices

Credit/debit card spending is down vs. 2022

Luxury homes are outperforming the broader housing market

Student loan balances are now down on a year-over-year basis

Demand for household credit is declining

The labor market is finally cooling

US labor productivity jumps

Three events that shifted Treasury market sentiment

Labor efficiency at the largest US firms has been rising

Companies are increasingly concerned about rising financing costs

Household incomes continue to lag spending

Housing investment saw its first increase in ten quarters

Small businesses are feeling the pressure of elevated interest rates

Freight rates remain in deflation

Automakers have stopped incentives for new vehicles

Markets have delivered an equivalent of 80 bps in Fed rate hikes Since September

The US leading index is down for the 18th month in a row

US housing construction is not keeping up with population growth

Mortgage rates near 8% as robust economic data pushes bond yields to multi-year highs

Remote and hybrid job postings are slowing

Consumer inflation expectations climbed this month

Services inflation surged in September

The market does not expect a Fed rate hike in November

Small firms are reporting tightening credit conditions

Fed officials express concerns about the surge in Treasury yields

Risk assets took solace in slowing US wage growth

A longer runway for consumer spending after excess savings revisions

Mortgage delinquencies remain exceptionally low

Robust US job openings report fuels bond market plunge

US manufacturing slump is easing

Retail inventories are climbing

Rising bankruptcies hint GDI better reflects US growth than GDP

Economists are boosting their 2024 CPI forecasts as oil prices surge

Home prices are increasingly outstripping wage growth

All eyes are on bond yields

Growth in US service sector activity is stalling, according to S&P Global

The US leading index down for 17 months in a row

The Fed’s “higher for longer” message rattles the markets

Treasury yields hit multi-year highs

Homebuilders see a pullback in demand

Too much enthusiasm about the economy?

The PPI report signals a pullback in corporate margins

Markets fade the upside core CPI surprise

Small businesses report declining sales

Consumers report difficulties obtaining credit

Media hype vs. economic reality

Rental costs are now declining

Service sector activity and costs accelerate

Americans with disabilities increasingly participate in the labor force

The labor market is conforming to the Fed’s desired trajectory

After the recent surge, consumer spending will hit a speed bump

The GDP and GDI measures diverge

The labor market is cooling

Millennials increasingly struggle with debt – just as student loan payments resume

Odds of another Fed rate hike up after Jackson Hole

US terminal rate highest since March ahead of Jackson Hole

No reacceleration in US economic growth

US businesses are reporting an upturn in inflation

While rents are down on a year-over-year basis, they continue to rise

Beijing seems uncommitted to policy easing

Small businesses fueled US job gains this year

The market dials back next year’s rate cut expectations

Amazon’s Prime Day and back-to-school shopping boosted retail sales

Beijing attempts to curb the economic downturn

The PPI report shows corporate margins holding up

Re-acceleration concerns persist

Homes are still selling faster than before the pandemic

Small businesses are reporting declining sales

First decline in credit card debt since 2021

Temp employment continues to decline

Heavy truck sales hit a record high

US small businesses have been driving recent job growth

The Treasury curve steepens as US debt is downgraded

Slowing individual income tax receipts point to a looser labor market

Retail inventories keep climbing

US GDP growth defies expectations

Fed’s presumably final hike triggers dollar decline

Housing prices keep outpacing wages

Service sector growth is slowing

Extra cash tends to burn a hole in Americans’ pockets

US economy will expand much slower than its growth potential

Consumer credit delinquencies continue to rise

Online retail sales save the day

The stock market signals a rebound in US factory activity

Rising stocks and housing prices boost consumer sentiment

Job hopping has lost its luster

Real wage growth is rebounding as inflation moderates

Forecasts indicate a revival in annual home price growth

US credit card rate climbs above 22%

Labor force participation among prime-age women hits a record high

The Fed struggles to loosen the labor market

A July Fed rate increase looks like a done deal

Excess savings could run out as soon as September

Real personal income indicators continue to improve