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Economists continue to boost their forecasts for US core inflation

Market sees massive BoE rate hikes amid relentless inflation

Residential construction surged in May

Used car prices continue to fall

Grocery price declines could prove fleeting

Continuing unemployment claims are now 30% above last year’s levels

The market fades the hawkish dot-plot

Car insurance costs boosted supercore CPI

Profit margins have been a key driver of inflation

All signals point to a looser labor market

Consumer spending is outpacing disposable incomes

It takes time for rate hikes to pressure consumer spending

Home listings continue to fall

When will excess savings run out?

Mixed jobs picture suggests the Fed will forgo a June rate hike

Manufacturing buildout is driving a surge in non-residential construction spending

The Great Resignation is ending

Confidence in the job market takes a downturn

Inflation is still running hot, boosted by robust consumer demand

The market is tempering Fed rate cut expectations

US credit rating downgrade looms

Some T-bill yields exceed 6%

No Treasury debt default in early June, but meeting other obligations could be problematic

No Fed rate increase in June

Economists keep pushing forward US recession start

Fed officials are pushing back on rate cut expectations

No indications of US recession for now

Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker declined sharply in April

Longer-term inflation expectations climbed this month

The labor market is starting to sputter

Markets encouraged by slowing supercore inflation

US default risk in perspective

Banks continue to tighten credit standards

Prime-age labor force participation has been surging

The gig economy has peaked

Markets see deep Fed rate cuts ahead

Voluntary resignations slowed while layoffs increased in March

Federal government’s interest payments surge

Employment costs top expectations

The labor market imbalance could disappear soon

Capital goods orders continue to roll over, signaling a retreat in business investment

Home prices unexpectedly increased in February

Reliance on credit cards hasn’t increased much

Service firms are boosting prices at a faster pace

Continuing jobless claims are now up 22% versus last year

Fed officials want to raise rates in May

The X-date is approaching faster than expected

The Empire Manufacturing surge is likely an outlier

Import prices are falling

Wage growth remains elevated

Housing inflation slowed in March

Small businesses are feeling the credit crunch

Consumer credit is becoming harder to obtain

Labor force participation is now in line with US demographic trend

Demand downturn is now the dominant reason for layoffs

US economic surprises are rolling over

The near-term forward spread is signaling a sharp economic downturn

Challenges mount for US manufacturing sector

Tax refunds are running well below last year’s levels

Truckload rates continue to fall, signaling deteriorating shipping demand

Rents are on the rise again

Economists raised projections for US core inflation

Proxy policy rates are deep in restrictive territory

Tighter credit conditions will pressure consumer spending

Inflation trumps banking turmoil

A cautious rate hike

Something usually breaks at the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle

Small banks’ struggles could reverberate across the US economy

Under regulatory pressure, UBS takes over Credit Suisse

Four months of QT reversed in a week

Bank crisis makes US recession much more likely

Supercore inflation accelerated last month

Labor force participation among prime-age women well above pre-COVID levels

Fed rate hike expectations massively repriced

A notable jump in unemployment applications

The Great Resignation is slowing

Chair Powell sends the terminal rate to new highs

US sovereign credit default swap spread highest since 2011

The ISM employment index signals healthy job gains last month

Hotel demand has been strong

Bond market slump shows no signs of abating

US apartment rental costs increased in February

The market is finally coming to terms with no Fed rate cuts in 2023

Supercore inflation is running hot

Households’ excess savings are still quite large

How much will a US technical default impact employment?

Service sector activity is growing again

Expected Fed terminal rate is up 40 basis points this month

Continuing unemployment claims are starting to show an upward trend

The bounce in retail sales could be short-lived

Shelter inflation is nearing 8% for the first time since 1983

When should we expect the last Fed rate hike?

Where is that recession everyone keeps talking about?

Trucking rates continue to fall

Business investment faces substantial headwinds

Market pricing for the US terminal rate hits a new high

Excess retirements persist

Unemployment rate lowest since 1969

Automobile sales surprised to the upside in January

The Fed acknowledges progress on inflation