Further signs of US manufacturing recession

The Daily Shot: 16-Aug-22
The United States
The United Kingdom
The Eurozone
Europe
China
Emerging Markets
Cryptocurrency
Commodities
Energy
Equities
Credit
Rates
Global Developments
Food for Thought



 

The United States

1. The NY Fed’s manufacturing report, the first regional indicator released in August, was shockingly weak.
 

 
It suggests that the manufacturing sector at the national level is in a recession (2 charts).
 
Source: Wells Fargo Securities  
 
Source: @Marcomadness2  
 
New orders plummetted.
 

 
Factories have been cutting employee hours.
 

 
CapEx expectations are slowing.
 

 
Supply bottlenecks are no longer a problem as demand crashes.
 
Unfilled orders:
 

 
Supplier delivery times:
 

 
Price pressures are starting to ease.
 

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2. At the national level, the inventory-to-sales ratio also signals a manufacturing contraction.
 
Source: Gavekal Research  
 
3. Next, we have some updates on the housing market.
 
Homebuilders are under pressure, …
 

 
… signaling a sharp slowdown in residential construction.
 
Source: NAHB   Read full article  
 
Homebuilder cancellations jumped last month.
 
Source: @calculatedrisk  
 
Housing affordability has deteriorated further.
 
Source: Piper Sandler¬†  
 
The spread between rent and mortgage payments has been declining.
 
Source: SIFMA  
 
Homebuyer competition eased further (fewer bidding wars).
 
Source: Redfin  
 
New listings of homes are down almost 12% relative to last year, …
 
Source: Redfin  
 
… as sellers pull back.
 

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2. The recovery in air travel has outpaced urban transit use.
 
Source: BCA Research  
 
3. BofA expects robust real retail sales in July.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
4. Financial conditions have eased recently. This should give the Fed room to keep tightening policy.
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  
 
5. BCA Research’s recession probability model rose to 40%, mostly because of the decline in leading economic indicators.
 
Source: BCA Research  
 
Tighter liquidity tends to precede recessions.
 
Source: Longview Economics  


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The United Kingdom

1. The UK stock market outperformance has stalled.
 

 
2. The gilt curve has flattened substantially in recent weeks.
 

 
3. Spare cash flow among UK households is expected to shrink, which could negatively impact spending.
 
Source: Longview Economics  
 
Household savings are also forecasted to decline.
 
Source: Longview Economics  
 
The squeeze in real income growth has been concentrated among low-income groups.
 
Source: Longview Economics  

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4. Container vessel waiting times are near their multi-year average.
 
Source: VesselsValue  


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The Eurozone

1. Germany’s natural gas surcharge will boost inflation.
 
Source: Commerzbank Research  
 
Source: Bloomberg   Read full article  
 
Natural gas consumption has been lower than normal in recent months.
 
Source: IMF   Read full article  
 
Germany’s online search activity for firewood has been surging.
 
Source: @opinion   Read full article  
 
2. Next, we have some data on the Rhine river situation (from Bloomberg).
 
Source: Bloomberg   Read full article  
 
3. French nuclear power output is at multi-year lows for this time of the year.
 

 
Source: Bloomberg   Read full article  

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4. Economists increasingly see a recession in the Eurozone.
 
Source: @GregDaco, Bloomberg   Read full article  


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Europe

1. Many EU member countries have reduced gas demand to target levels.
 
Source: ING; {h/t} Longview Economics  
 
At least four member states have already reached their November gas storage targets, while another four are close behind.
 
Source: Longview Economics  
 
2. It’s been a very dry summer.
 
Source: The Washington Post   Read full article  
 
Rivers are running dry.
 
Source: @dr_xeo  


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China

1. The renminbi weakened further after the PBoC rate cut.
 

 
Bond yields continue to fall.
 

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2. Here are China’s key economic indicators.
 
Source: Gavekal Research  
 
3. Excluding local government debt, China’s credit rebound has been tepid.
 
Source: BCA Research  
 
But the decline in interbank lending rates points to an increase in aggregate credit (typically a 12-month lead).
 
Source: Longview Economics  


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Emerging Markets

1. Banxico keeps boosting its inflation forecasts.
 
Source: Scotiabank Economics  
 
2. In Brazil, real interest rates are approaching a seven-year high, north of 8% year-over-year.
 
Source: Barclays Research  
 
3. Are policy rates near their peak in most LatAm economies?
 
Source: @EloMdeo, @markets   Read full article  
 
Barclays expects most tightening cycles in Latin America to extend into the fourth quarter of this year.
 
Source: Barclays Research  

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4. When it comes to emerging markets, risk aversion among global fund managers remains very high.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  


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Cryptocurrency

1. Bitcoin continues to lag growth stocks.
 

 
2. The BTC/ETH price ratio is approaching long-term support, similar to the bitcoin dominance index. Could we see a pause in the risk-on rally? (2 charts)
 
Source: @StocktonKatie  
 
Source: @StocktonKatie  

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3. Crypto funds saw minor outflows last week, driven by bitcoin-focused products. (2 charts)
 
Source: CoinShares   Read full article  
 
Source: CoinShares   Read full article  
 
4. Canadian crypto ETFs saw the most outflows last week, while German funds continued to see inflows.
 
Source: CoinShares   Read full article  
 
5. Coinbase daily transactions declined sharply in recent months.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  


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Commodities

1. The decline in US steel prices points to weaker construction-related demand, especially on the back of higher borrowing costs, according to Capital Economics.
 
Source: Capital Economics  
 
2. The commodity cycle is highly correlated to China’s economic activity.
 
Source: Numera Analytics  


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Energy

1. European natural gas futures hit a new high.
 

 
2. OPEC seems to have a lot of faith in global economic strength driving oil demand higher.
 
Source: @rory_johnston, h/t @pav_chartbook  
 
Capital Economics expects a decline in oil consumption growth in the coming quarters.
 
Source: Capital Economics  
 
The crude oil market surplus is expected to increase, which could lead to a recovery in commercial stocks in advanced economies (2 charts).
 
Source: Capital Economics  
 
Source: Capital Economics  


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Equities

1. Over 90% of S&P 500 members trade above their 50-day moving average.
 

 
The S&P 500 is almost 9% above its 50-day moving average. Time for a pullback?
 

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2. The US market rebound has been outpacing the rest of the world.
 

 
3. Deutsche Bank’s consolidated positioning indicator increased last week.
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  
 
But equity futures positioning remains exceptionally bearish.
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

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4. The stock market has diverged from real yields, which is not sustainable.
 
Source: Morgan Stanley Research; @WallStJesus  
 
5. The On-Balance Volume indicator has not been signaling a rebound.
 

 
6. Short-covering has been extreme in recent weeks (2 charts).
 
Source: JP Morgan Research; @themarketear  
 
Source: @Mayhem4Markets  

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7. Rising labor costs will be a drag on margins.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
Companies with traditionally high labor costs have been underperforming this month.
 

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8. We didn’t see the usual fund outflows during this year’s selloff (no capitulation?).
 
Source: Barclays Research  
 
9. Cyclical sectors are starting to outperform defensives.
 
Source: Aazan Habib, Paradigm Capital  
 
10. Fund managers’ cash holdings are off the highs but remain elevated.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  


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Credit

1. Investors are not very concerned about corporate leverage.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
2. Muni bond fund flows turned positive last month (slightly).
 
Source: Morningstar  
 
3. According to Deutsche Bank, subprime auto loan originations reached the highest level since 2015 in Q2.
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  


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Rates

1. Is this the peak for the US Treasury’s average debt maturity?
 
Source: @FedGuy12   Read full article  
 
2. The QT-driven increase in fixed-income supply has been offset by lower debt issuance (“UST Coup” = coupon-paying Treasuries).
 
Source: FHN Financial  
 
3. Will investors’ rate expectations follow inflation expectations lower.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  


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Global Developments

1. Container freight costs continue to ease.
 

 
Shipping times are moderating but remain elevated.
 
Source: Fitch Ratings  

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2. Economic growth is weakening globally.
 
Source: Barclays Research  
 
3. Long the US dollar is still viewed as the most crowded trade.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  


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Food for Thought

1. US household savings reserve:
 
Source: Morgan Stanley Research  
 
2. Ukraine’s grain shipments:
 
Source: The Economist   Read full article  
 
3. Chinese and Russian GDP trends:
 
Source: World Economics  
 
4. Processor chip manufacturing capacity:
 
Source: Capital Economics  
 
5. Plastics footprint of top fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies:
 
Source: Barclays Research  
 
6. GOP voters’ support for Trump:
 
Source: Morning Consult   Read full article  
 
GOP 2024 presidential nomination probabilities (according to the betting markets):
 
Source: @PredictIt  

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7. Common uses for key polymers:
 
Source: Barclays Research  

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