Posted on by The Daily Shot Editor: Lev Borodovsky

Consumers report difficulties obtaining credit

The Daily Shot: 12-Sep-23
• The United States
• The United Kingdom
• The Eurozone
• Japan
• China
• Emerging Markets
• Cryptocurrency
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Credit
• Rates
• Food for Thought

 

The United States

1. Let’s begin with some updates on inflation.
 
• The one-year consumer inflation expectations from the NY Fed’s latest survey edged higher last month, but the three-year index declined.
 

 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  
 
• Retail gasoline prices are now up on a year-over-year basis.
 

 
• Morgan Stanley estimates a sharp increase in the headline CPI in August, boosted by energy prices.
 
Source: Morgan Stanley Research  
 
• Goldman sees the core CPI accelerating through January of next year.
 
Source: Goldman Sachs; @dailychartbook  
 
• Used car prices continue to fall.
 
Source: Morgan Stanley Research  
 
• Fewer resignations signal a sharp decline in wage growth.
 
Source: Capital Economics  
 
• Is the Fed’s policy rate high enough to meaningfully bring inflation down to 2%, especially given resilient economic growth?
 
Source: MRB Partners  
 
We will have more data on inflation ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report.

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2. Next, let’s take a look at other aspects of the NY Fed’s consumer survey.
 
• Income and spending expectations continue to ease.
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  
 
• Workers with a high school diploma or less are increasingly concerned about job security.
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  
 
• Expectations for home price appreciation are back at pre-COVID levels.
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  
 
• Consumers increasingly report difficulties obtaining credit.
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  

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3. After a multi-year hiatus, the NY Fed’s GDP nowcast report is back, providing an alternative to Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow.
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York  
 
Source: MarketWatch   Read full article  

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4. Transportation overcapacity is easing, pushing prices higher.
 
Source: Logistics Managers’ Index  
 
Here is the Logistics Manager’s Index. Is the freight sector recession finally over?
 
Source: tradingeconomics.com  

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5. Manufacturing accounts receivables entered contraction last month. This could mean any of the following:
• Fewer sales on credit.
• More customers paying off their debts, reducing the outstanding accounts receivable.
• Write-offs of uncollectible accounts.
 
h/t Quill Intelligence  

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The United Kingdom

1. The housing market remains under pressure.
 
Source: tradingeconomics.com  
 
2. The UK REC (placement company) survey indicates a weakening labor market.
 
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics  
 
3. Hiring challenges are easing.
 
Source: ING  
 
4. Who is getting their driver’s license?
 
Source: @Datawrapper  

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The Eurozone

1. Economists continue to downgrade their estimates for the euro-area GDP growth next year. Much of the weakness is driven by Germany.
 


 
Forecasters also increasingly see higher inflation next year.
 

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2. According to Deutsche Bank, 70% of Eurozone business debt is bank-based and, therefore, far more likely to be variable rate relative to the US.
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  
 
European corporate net interest payments rose sharply in contrast to a surprise decline in the US (2 charts).
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  
 
Source: Longview Economics  

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3. A key driver of labor shortages has been the reduction in hours worked (2 charts).
 
Source: ING  
 
Source: ING  

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Japan

1. The yen strengthened this week as the BoJ signaled tighter policy ahead.
 

 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  

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2. Machine tool orders were almost unchanged last month.
 

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China

1. Loan growth picked upin August.
 
• Bank loans:
 

 
• Total credit:
 

 
The money supply growth continues to slow.
 

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2. Consumption growth is holding up.
 
Source: MRB Partners  
 
3. The rise in excess liquidity could support equities.
 
Source: Variant Perception  
 
4. Are investors too gloomy on China?
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
5. This chart shows China’s projected vehicle exports.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
6. Medical costs have been surging.
 
Source: @financialtimes   Read full article  

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Emerging Markets

1. Let’s begin with Mexico.
 
• Concerns over rising budget deficit put upward pressure on bond yields.
 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  
 

 
• Higher yields boosted the peso.
 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  
 

 
• The policy rate differential with the US is expected to tighten.
 
Source: Oxford Economics  

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2. Argentina’s economic activity continues to slow.
 

 
3. Turkey’s industrial production remains robust.
 

 
4. Hungary’s budget deficit has blown out.
 

 
5. India’s labor market sentiment has been improving over the past decade.
 
Source: Gallup   Read full article  
 
6. Here is a look at credit ratings and estimates of the neutral rate.
 
Source: Oxford Economics  

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Cryptocurrency

1. Crypto funds saw another week of outflows led by long-bitcoin funds. (2 charts)
 
Source: CoinShares   Read full article  
 
Source: CoinShares   Read full article  

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2. Bitcoin has outperformed month-to-date.
 

 
3. There is concern that FTX could shed its large holdings of digital assets, which could unleash selling pressure across altcoins. The news sent BTC briefly below the $25K support level.
 
Source: CoinDesk   Read full article  
 
Source: CoinDesk   Read full article  

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4. Solana’s SOL token remains in a steep downtrend relative to bitcoin.
 

 
5. The BTC/ETH price ratio continues to trend higher.
 

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Commodities

1. Commodity prices have risen despite the strengthening of the US dollar.
 
Source: Capital Economics  
 
2. Chicago cattle futures hit a new high.
 

 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  

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3. Cocoa futures continue to surge.
 

 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  

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Energy

1. Oil implied vol has been tanking.
 

 
2. China’s oil imports remain elevated.
 
Source: Gavekal Research  
 
3. The rise in US shale production created wider disparities between the WTI oil price and other grades of oil across the world.
 
Source: The Crude Chronicles  
 
4. European natural gas prices are higher due to LNG worker strikes in Australia.
 

 
Source: @markets   Read full article  

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5. US solar investment is accelerating.
 
Source: @markchediak, @markets   Read full article  

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Equities

1. Companies with exposure to the US government have underperformed recently.
 

 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  

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2. Next, we have some sector trends.
 
• Consumer Discretionary:
 

Source: @technology   Read full article  
 
• Communication Services:
 

 
• Semiconductors:
 

 
• Consumer Staples:
 

 
• Banks:
 

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3. Hedge funds’ stock picks have been outperforming …
 

 
… as managers boosted exposure to mega-caps this year.
 

 
Source: Goldman Sachs  
 
4. Hedge funds have also been boosting their short positions.
 
Source: Goldman Sachs; @Marlin_Capital  
 
5. It’s been 95 trading sessions since the S&P 500 declined by 1.5% or more.
 

 
6. So far, the S&P 500 has benefitted from the compression in bond market volatility since the March peak in the MOVE Index.
 
Source: Aazan Habib, Paradigm Capital  
 
7. The average US stock has underperformed international shares over the past 12 months. Below is a comparison of equal-weighted indices.
 

 
Source: @JeffreyKleintop  

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8. The depressed equity risk premium doesn’t bode well for S&P 500 performance relative to bonds.
 
Source: Truist Advisory Services  
 
• Historically, equities, credit, private equity, and real estate exhibit smaller risk premia when rates are high. Liquid alternatives such as equity-neutral and trend-following strategies typically deliver on their “cash-plus” objective during high-rate environments.
 
Source: AQR   Read full article  

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Credit

1. Bank deposits in the US, including those with smaller lenders, have remained relatively stable in recent months.
 

 
However, commercial real estate exposure at small banks remains a concern.
 
Source: @markets   Read full article  
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
Here is the S&P Global US Bank Outlook Survey.
 
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence  

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2. The corporate debt-to-equity ratio remains relatively low.
 

 
3. Here is a look at S&P 500 companies with the highest debt ratings.
 
Source: @genuine_impact  

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Rates

1. The San Francisco Fed’s proxy funds rate suggests that the broader monetary policy is more restrictive than the actual rate implies.
 
Source: SF Fed  
 
2. The average across all forecasts suggests the fed funds rate could average 330 basis points higher over the next decade than the previous 12 years.
 
Source: AQR   Read full article  
 
3. Fund managers increasingly believe that the Fed has finished raising rates.
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
4. The 3-year note auction drew the highest yield since 2007.
 
Source: @markets   Read full article  

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Food for Thought

1. Unhappy employees:
 
Source: @axios   Read full article  
 
2. Data on US independent workers:
 
Source: McKinsey & Company   Read full article  
 
3. US domestic terrorism with known offenders:
 
Source: USAFacts  
 
• Political violence in the US:
 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  

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4. CO2 emissions:
 
Source: Our World in Data  
 
CO2 emissions from coal:
 
Source: @MichaelAArouet  

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5. Kindergarten vaccine exemption rates:
 
Source: @axios   Read full article  
 
6. Alzheimer’s prevalence:
 
Source: @jeremybney  
 
7. Milk consumption by age:
 
Source: USAFacts  
 

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