The Daily Shot: 28-Nov-23
• The United States
• Canada
• The United Kingdom
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• China
• Emerging Markets
• Cryptocurrency
• Commodities
• Energy
• Equities
• Credit
• Global Developments
• Food for Thought
The United States
1. Economists upgraded their forecasts for next year’s GDP growth, …
… with no recession expected over the next few quarters.
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2. New home sales softened last month but held well above 2022 levels.
• This seasonally adjusted chart shows the breakdown by stage of construction.
Source: Chart and data provided by Macrobond
• Next, we have new home inventories in months of supply.
• The median new home price dropped sharply, …
… as more builders offered incentives.
Source: Wells Fargo Securities
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3. The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing report showed deteriorating Texas factory activity this month.
Manufacturers have been cutting workers’ hours.
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4. US financial conditions eased sharply this month, …
… with the largest monthly decline in Goldman’s indicator in recent decades.
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5. US air travel surged last week.
6. Shoppers are cautious about holiday spending mostly because of economic concerns, according to a survey by Global X. (2 charts)
Source: Global X ETFs Read full article
Source: Global X ETFs Read full article
So far, however, holiday spending indicators for 2023 are not terrible (2 charts).
Source: Reuters Read full article
Source: Reuters Read full article
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Canada
1. Forecasters expect Canada’s economy to grow by 0.6% next year.
2. Retail sales unexpectedly increased in September.
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The United Kingdom
1. The CBI retail sales report showed some improvement this month.
Source: Checkout Read full article
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2. Retail store price inflation eased further in November (2 charts).
Source: @financialtimes Read full article
Source: Reuters Read full article
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3. Home prices have been outpacing wages for decades.
Source: The Guardian Read full article
4. Productivity in the UK public sector has trailed behind that of the private sector.
Source: The Economist Read full article
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Europe
1. Norway’s GDP contracted again in Q3.
2. Next, we have some updates on Poland.
• Retail sales (upside surprise):
• Consumer confidence (rebounding):
• Budget deficit:
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3. This map shows the tertiary educational attainment across Europe.
Source: Eurostat Read full article
4. Here is a look at women’s employment rates and fertility rates in the EU.
Source: Eurostat
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Asia-Pacific
1. South Korea’s consumer sentiment continues to fall.
2. Australia’s retail sales unexpectedly declined last month.
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China
1. The renminbi’s rebound has brought the currency closer to Beijing’s target.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
2. Mortgage loan balances are now down on a year-over-year basis.
Source: @markets Read full article
3. Banks’ bad loan balances keep climbing while interest margin continues to shrink.
Source: Bloomberg Read full article
4. Hong Kong’s trade deficit narrowed more than expected last month, …
… as exports grew.
• Separately, Hong Kong’s one-month interbank rate hit its highest level since 2008 amid expectations for a year-end liquidity crunch.
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Emerging Markets
1. India’s fiscal deficit is on a downward trend.
Source: Barclays Research
2. Mexico’s trade surplus reached a record high for this time of the year.
3. Latin America has experienced an anti-incumbent wave in recent years.
Source: Latinometrics
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Cryptocurrency
1. Crypto funds saw the largest surge in inflows since 2021 last week.
Source: CoinShares Read full article
• Long-bitcoin products continued to dominate inflows.
Source: CoinShares Read full article
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2. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s (GBTC) discount to NAV narrowed significantly this year as investors hope that a US bitcoin-spot ETF will be approved.
3. Roughly 83% of the total BTC circulating supply is held in profit, similar to the 2021 bull market highs.
Source: Glassnode Read full article
4. Speculative NFT trading activity collapsed over the past year but appears to have stabilized during the recent crypto rally.
Source: World Economic Forum Read full article
• NFTs have been used in sports, ticketing, video games, luxury items, and more.
Source: World Economic Forum Read full article
Source: World Economic Forum Read full article
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Commodities
1. Iron ore prices extended losses as Beijing jawbones the commodity lower.
2. Palladium, which depends on automotive demand, continues to underperform.
3. Will gold hit resistance around $2065/oz?
Source: barchart.com
4. Corn futures continue to tumble on record US harvest.
5. US spring wheat futures (high-protein wheat) dipped below $7/bsh.
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Energy
1. All eyes are on the OPEC decision. Here is Brent.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
2. US gross crude oil exports have been running near record levels in recent months.
3. Here is a look at oil transport chokepoints across the Middle East.
Source: BofA Global Research
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Equities
1. Let’s start with sector earnings growth expectations for 2024.
Source: Citi Private Bank
2. Dividend-focused ETFs saw minimal net inflows this year after hitting a record in 2022.
Source: Bloomberg Read full article
Shares of dividend growers continue to underperform.
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3. Only 32% of large-cap mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks this year, with underperformance driven by underallocation to tech megacaps.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi
4. Investment managers continue to boost exposure to stocks.
Source: NAAIM
5. Deteriorating credit impulse is expected to be a headwind for global stock prices next year.
Source: @MikaelSarwe
6. Stocks with the highest options volume continue to outperform.
7. The Reddit crowd is not pouncing on the most shorted stocks in this rally.
8. The 1-day volatility index hit the lowest level since the CBOE launched it.
• Dealers are very short VIX call options.
Source: Nomura Securities; @WallStJesus
• The recent decline in VIX has occurred alongside a higher valuation for the S&P 500 versus Treasuries.
Source: Capital Economics
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Credit
1. Business loan balances held by banks are now firmly below last year’s levels.
2. Here is a look at leveraged loan use of proceeds.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
3. This chart shows the percentage of loans in CMBS portfolios that werepaid off by September of each year.
Source: @WSJ Read full article
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Global Developments
1. Housing affordability fell while house prices rose across OECD countries over the past year.
Source: Oxford Economics
• Home price-to-income ratios are above historical averages.
Source: Oxford Economics
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2. Countries that experienced a greater change in net corporate interest expense have seen the sharpest decline in their 2024 consensus GDP forecast.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
3. Realized volatility across some major assets remains elevated relative to their averages over the past decade.
Source: Capital Economics
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Food for Thought
1. Office occupancy relative to pre-pandemic levels:
Source: Wells Fargo Securities
2. US COVID-era real income by race/ethnicity:
Source: Reuters Read full article
3. Members of Congress not seeking re-election:
Source: @axios Read full article
4. Generative AI milestones:
Source: Global X ETFs Read full article
5. Russia boosting defense spending:
Source: The Economist Read full article
6. Eliminating daylight savings:
Source: USAFacts
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