Banks continue to tighten credit standards

The Daily Shot: 09-May-23
The United States
Canada
The United Kingdom
The Eurozone
Europe
Japan
Asia – Pacific
China
Emerging Markets
Cryptocurrency
Commodities
Equities
Credit
Food for Thought



 

The United States

1. Let’s begin with some updates on inflation.
 
The NY Fed’s national consumer survey showed a decline in the one-year inflation expectations but an increase in the three-year measure.
 

 
What should we expect from the CPI report on Wednesday?
 
Nomura sees a modest decrease in the monthly core CPI gain (to 0.34%), consistent with consensus.
 
Source: Nomura Securities  
 
Blooberg’s nowcast model shows a higher figure of 0.45%.
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  
 
Nomura expects an increase in rent inflation, which we saw in the Apartment List data.
 
Source: Nomura Securities  
 
But supercore inflation is expected to drop.
 
Source: Nomura Securities  
 
US core inflation is a larger portion of the total CPI than in other G7 countries.
 
Source: OECD   Read full article  

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2. Banks continue to tighten lending standards.
 
Source: @axios   Read full article  
 
Here is the percentage of lenders tightening standards on loans to small companies.
 

 
And this chart shows the share of banks reducing credit limits on large and middle-market firms.
 

 
There is more on the topic in the credit section.
 
Tighter credit will put pressure on economic activity and jobs (2 charts).
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  
 
Source: Oxford Economics  

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3. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is tracking 2.7% growth this quarter.
 
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta  
 
Here is the attribution.
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  
 
The Blomberg Economics nowcast model, however, is tracking zero growth.
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

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4. Mall visits are now substantially below last year’s levels.
 
Source: Placer.ai  
 
5. The wholesale inventory-to-sales ratio climbed further in March, …
 

 
… as sales unexpectedly tumbled.
 

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6. Companies have been traumatized by the COVID-era West Cost port backlog and have shifted some imports to other ports.
 
Source: @LouKCurtis, @economics   Read full article  
 
7. Greater IT spending could boost productivity growth. (2 charts)
 
Source: Morgan Stanley Research  
 
Source: Morgan Stanley Research  

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8. There is not a lot of time left in May to reach a deal on the debt ceiling.
 
Source: @markets   Read full article  


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Canada

1. Consumer sentiment continues to rebound.
 

 
2. Canada’s banking sector has not experienced the declines in bank deposits seen in the US.
 
Source: Scotiabank Economics  


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The United Kingdom

1. Construction activity stayed in growth mode last month, held up by non-residential structures. Housing construction activity, however, deteriorated further.
 

 
2. The market expects another BoE rate hike this week.
 
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics  


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The Eurozone

1. Investor sentiment appears to be rolling over.
 

 
2. Inflation expectations continue to ease.
 
Source: BCA Research  


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Europe

1. The Norwegian krone bounced from the lows after the rate hike. Will the rebound be sustained?
 

 
2. Sweden’s SBB is struggling amid the real estate rout.
 

 
Source: @CharlesCredit, @trabanton, @divyabalji, @markets   Read full article  
 
However, housing prices appear to be stabilizing.
 
Source: @nicrolander, @economics   Read full article  

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3. Here is a look at workers with poor work-life balance in the EU.
 
Source: Eurofound   Read full article  


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Japan

1. The iShares Japan ETF is at resistance.
 

 
2. Household spending unexpectedly declined in March, …
 

 
… as real wages remain in contraction mode.
 

 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  


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Asia – Pacific

1. Taiwan’s trade surplus surged last month, …
 

 
… as exports show signs of stabilization.
 

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2. Australia’s household spending intentions remain strong.
 


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China

1. Bank shares have been rallying.
 

 
2. F/X reserves continue to rebound.
 

 
This chart shows the PBoC’s FX interventions.
 
Source: @Brad_Setser  

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3. China’s capital stock is becoming less efficient.
 
Source: BCA Research  


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Emerging Markets

1. Brazil’s vehicle production dipped back below last year’s levels.
 

 
2. Chile’s trade surplus declined sharply last month as exports fell.
 

 
3. The Mexican peso is trading near the strongest levels vs. USD since 2017.
 

 
4. Turkey’s government deficit has blown out due to pre-election spending (and recently exacerbated by the earthquake).
 

 
5. Indian stocks have been losing ground relative to EM and global peers.
 
Source: PGM Global  
 
India’s liquidity conditions have tightened, partly because of the significant government bond issuance crowding out credit issuance to the private sector, according to PGM Global.
 
Source: PGM Global  
 
The rise in USD/INR has stabilized along with interest rate differentials.
 
Source: PGM Global  


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Cryptocurrency

1. Bitcoin dipped below the 50-day moving average amid concerns about Binance halting withdrawals.
 

 
Source: @Suvajourno, @sidcoins, @crypto   Read full article  

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2. Total fees paid for bitcoin transactions surged in recent days.
 
Source: Deutsche Digital Assets  
 
Source: Decrypt   Read full article  


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Commodities

1. Chicago hog futures remain under pressure.
 

 
Source: Foodmarket   Read full article  

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2. Sugar is up more than 30% this year.
 
Source: @cangsizhi, @markets   Read full article  


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Equities

1. Net short S&P 500 positioning is back to the bottom quartile, which typically precedes a market advance over the next year.
 
Source: Denise Chisholm; Fidelity Investments  
 
2. Of the last 11 recessions, five ended with stocks higher than when the recession began.
 
Source: Fidelity Investments  
 
3. Institutional risk appetite remains depressed.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
4. How do stocks perform after the Fed’s last hike?
 
Source: Oxford Economics  
 
5. Significant exposure to non-US revenues was a disadvantage in Q1.
 
Source: @FactSet   Read full article  
 
6. Tighter credit conditions point to weaker earnings ahead.
 
Source: Piper Sandler¬†  
 
7. Commodities are pricing a larger economic downturn than equities.
 
Source: Goldman Sachs  
 
8. Here is a look at earnings beats in key markets.
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  
 
9. There are a lot of shareholder meetings in the second quarter.
 
Source: @FactSet   Read full article  
 
10. ARK Innovation continues to follow the dot-com analog.
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  


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Credit

1. The sharpest credit tightening was in construction and development loans, …
 

 
… as demand crashes.
 

 
Credit in multi-family housing also tightened massively.
 

 

 
Here is the summary of banks tightening lending standards.
 
Source: Oxford Economics  

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2. Credit tightening is increasingly discussed on earnings calls.
 
Source: @johnauthers, @opinion   Read full article  
 
3. Regional banks’ bond spreads have risen significantly.
 
Source: Deutsche Bank Research  
 
By the way, here is the Google search activity for “regional banks.”
 
Source: Google Trends  

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4. Primary-market leveraged loan yields keep climbing.
 
Source: @theleadleft  


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Food for Thought

1. US College enrollment rates (2 charts):
 
Source: @TheDailyShot  
 
Source: @TheDailyShot  
 
2. College enrollment projections:
 
Source: Trading Pedia   Read full article  

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3. Millennial renters:
 
Source: Apartment List  
 
4. Minimum standard retirement age for public pensions:
 
Source: Statista  
 
5. US post-recession GDP recoveries:
 
Source: BofA Global Research  
 
6. US postage stamp rates:
 
Source: @axios   Read full article  
 
7. Monthly car payments of at least $1,000.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
8. French bulldog popularity in the US:
 
Source: The Economist   Read full article  

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