Smaller cities are pushing up rent inflation

The Daily Shot: 13-Dec-23
The United States
The United Kingdom
The Eurozone
Japan
China
Emerging Markets
Energy
Equities
Credit
Global Developments
Food for Thought



 

The United States

1. The CPI report was roughly in line with expectations, with the core inflation strengthening in November.
 
Headline:
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  
 
Core:
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  
 
The supercore CPI:
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  
 
Here is a quote from Nomura.

The pickup in November was largely driven by the mean-reversion in components, which surprised on the downside in October, including used autos and lodging away-from-home.

The core CPI held steady on a year-over-year basis.
 

 
Core goods prices declined again (2 charts).
 

 
Source: Nomura Securities  
 
The core services inflation strengthened in November, …
 

 
… boosted by a surprise increase in the owners’ equivalent rent (OER) (see the 2nd panel below).
 

 
OER gains were driven by some of the largest cities.
 
Source: Nomura Securities  
 
On the other hand, smaller cities have been pushing up rent inflation.
 
Source: Nomura Securities  
 
Here are some additional CPI components.
 
New vehicles:
 

 
Used vehicles:
 

 
Car insurance (up 19% percent year-over-year):
 
Source: Scotiabank Economics  
 
Electricity:
 

 
Apparel:
 

——————–

 
2. The market reaction was muted, with the 2-year Treasury yield edging higher.
 

 
The 10-year yield declined, …
 

 
… pushing the yield curve further into inversion territory.
 

 
Stocks continued to surge.
 

——————–

 
3. The NFIB small business sentiment edged lower last month.
 

 
Sales expectations showed some improvement.
 

 
The hiring plans index ticked up.
 

 
More firms will be boosting wages in the months ahead.
 

 
Fewer businesses are raising prices, …
 

 
… but more firms expect to increase prices next year.
 

 
Credit conditions have deteriorated for small firms.
 

——————–

 
4. Consumer sentiment is rebounding.
 
Source: @CivicScience  
 
5. The budget deficit widened last month.
 

 
Source: Reuters   Read full article  


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The United Kingdom

1. The ONS says it’s in the process of fixing the UK unemployment report. The data points we do have indicate a softening labor market.
 
Payrolls:
 

 
Net unemployment claims:
 

 
Vacancies:
 

 
Wage growth slowed more than expected.
 

——————–

 
2. Bregret?
 
Source: @financialtimes   Read full article  


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The Eurozone

1. Germany’s ZEW expectations index surprised to the upside again.
 

 
2. Dutch exports are down sharply on a year-over-year basis.
 

 
3. Will the euro-area credit contraction nudge the ECB to cut rates next year?
 
Source: @ANZ_Research  
 
4. Growth in negotiated wages has been accelerating.
 
Source: Barclays Research  
 
5. The PMI measures still signal a recession.
 
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics  


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Japan

The Tankan report shows business sentiment improving this quarter.
 
Large manufacturers:
 

 
Small manufacturers:
 

 
Large non-manufacturing firms:
 

 
Small non-manufacturing firms:
 


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China

1. No bazooka stimulus means no market rebound.
 

 
Source: @bpolitics   Read full article  
 
So far, the stimulus announcements haven’t been enough.
 
Source: @bpolitics   Read full article  

——————–

 
2. China’s CPI deflation is unique.
 
Source: Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog  
 
3. Retail volumes rebounded last month, led by luxury goods.
 
Source: China Beige Book  
 
4. Developers’ sales remain depressed.
 
Source: @financialtimes   Read full article  
 
Real estate will remain a drag on growth for years.
 
Source: The Economist   Read full article  


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Emerging Markets

1. Mexico’s factory output edged lower in October but remained near record highs.
 

 
The rebound in Oil & Gas production appears to be stalling.
 

 
Construction output has been surging.
 

——————–

 
2. Brazil’s inflation declined again, suggesting more rate cuts ahead.
 

 
Here is the 2-year yield.
 

——————–

 
3. A 54% devaluation for Argentina’s currency ahead?
 
Source: @economics   Read full article  
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

——————–

 
4. India’s industrial production accelerated in October.
 

 
Source: The Times of India   Read full article  
 
Inflation picked up last month but was lower than expected.
 


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Energy

1. Crude oil prices continue to tumble, …
 

 
… with contango intensifying (3 charts).
 

 

 

 
The WTI oil futures price appears oversold, although momentum remains negative.
 

——————–

 
2. Crude oil speculators have quickly unwound their crowded long positions since the July-September price rally.
 
Source: Aazan Habib, Paradigm Capital  
 
3. US gasoline futures dipped below $2/gal.
 
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  
 
4. US natural gas futures are getting obliterated.
 

 

——————–

 
5. Here is a look at global LNG exports.
 
Source: Goldman Sachs  


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Equities

1. The S&P 500 hit the highest level since January of 2022. Technicals suggest that the index is overbought.
 

 
A large number of S&P 500 stocks closed at record highs on Tuesday.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  

——————–

 
2. The S&P 500 has diverged from its earnings revision breadth.
 
Source: Morgan Stanley Research; @dailychartbook  
 
3. Capital Economics sees US shares continuing to outperform international markets next year.
 
Source: Capital Economics  
 
4. Small caps tend to outperform in December.
 
Source: Goldman Sachs; @Marlin_Capital  
 
5. Next, we have some updates on the volatility markets.
 
Options average daily volume hit a record this year, …
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
… boosted by short-term contracts.
 
Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
 
VIX is nearing 12 for the first time since 2019.
 

 
Here is the 3-month VIX-equivalent.
 

 
Relaized vol is also crashing.
 

 
The market isn’t too worried about this week’s FOMC meeting.
 
Source: Nomura Securities; @WallStJesus  

——————–

 
6. One measure of market froth is the PE/VIX ratio (valuation relative to perceived risk).
 


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Credit

1. “Higher for longer” will be troublesome for leveraged firms.
 
Source: @BW   Read full article  
 
2. The quality of the US high-yield index has improved since the financial crisis…
 
Source: Oxford Economics  
 
…although fundamentals have weakened since the onset of the Fed’s hiking cycle.
 
Source: Oxford Economics  

——————–

 
3. Interest coverage ratios are trending lower.
 
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence  


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Global Developments

1. The sharp decline in US economic surprises relative to other G10 nations has weighed on the dollar.
 
Source: MRB Partners  
 
2. Here is a look at government debt ownership by country.
 
Source: Torsten Slok,¬†Apollo  


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Food for Thought

1. US population growth:
 
Source: @GameofTrades_  
 
2. Homeschooling:
 
Source: @chartrdaily  
 
3. A failing education system?
 
Source: The Economist   Read full article  
 
4. Why do people immigrate to the US?
 
Source: Visual Capitalist  
 
5. Afghanistan poppy cultivations:
 
Source: Statista  
 
6. Injuries related to Christmas decoration activities:
 
Source: USAFacts  
 

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